Hillcrest Plan · Wimauma, FL 33598

$325,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,046 sqft · SingleFamily · 622 Days on market

Excellent condition $13/mo HOA ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ryan Homes at Cypress Ridge Ranch - discover your dream home in a serene, amenity-rich community. Choose your perfect homesite, customize your floorplan, and add your personal touches. Priced from the low $300s. The Hillcrest single-family home has it all. Your convenient 2-car garage leads to your gourmet kitchen where a large island overlooks the dining and family rooms. Gather in this open area with friends or outside on your large lanai. Upstairs, 3 spacious bedrooms and a double vanity full bath surround a versatile loft, the perfect spot for entertaining visiting guests. Your deluxe owner's suite features dual walk-in closets and double vanity bath.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 621 days

🏗️ New construction. The $325,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $352,742.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $326k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#699 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 858 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 622 days — a 12% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $262,174 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 622 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.61%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,742
• List price: $325,990
• Delta: -7.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2312 Scenic Park Loop	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,046 (0%)	8mo	$334,955	$164	91
5976 Ballast Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	2,005 (-2%)	1mo	$350,900	$175	84
2429 White Ladyfish Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,021 (-1%)	10mo	$389,640	$193	78
6007 Ballast Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,314 (+13%)	0mo	$426,260	$184	68
5936 Ballast Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,819 (-11%)	0mo	$346,180	$190	67
6051 Dropwort Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,819 (-11%)	1mo	$342,900	$189	67
2422 White Ladyfish Rd	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,314 (+13%)	12mo	$411,387	$178	61
6088 Barracuda Loop	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,314 (+13%)	4mo	$413,675	$179	57
5758 Purple Finch Ave	0.71mi	4/2.5	1,874 (-8%)	4mo	$318,950	$170	49
17311 Blue Walk St	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,145 (+5%)	20mo	$379,000	$177	41
5732 Yellow Hornbill Ave	0.68mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,344 (+15%)	11mo	$343,100	$146	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-79,231
• Equity at exit: $62,955

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-121,089
• Equity at exit: $48,596

Cash invested: $98,768 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 62 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 28.6 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,695 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 858
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,622 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,850
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$441 /mo · $5,291/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,102

Max offer price $297,821

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-258	+0% $-380	+5% $-501	+10% $-623
Rent	-10% $-587	-5% $-483	+0% $-380	+5% $-276	+10% $-172
Rate	-1.0pp $-202	-0.5pp $-290	base $-380	+0.5pp $-471	+1.0pp $-564

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,186
• Closing costs: $10,582
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2467 White Ladyfish Rd Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,100	$1.40	73d	1	0.05mi
5615 Red Kite Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2112	$3,000	$1.42	52d	1	0.77mi
2215 Red Crossbill St Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,650	$1.20	38d	1	0.78mi
2255 Blue Grosbeak Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,600	$1.39	11d	1	0.79mi
5771 Red Kite Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,650	$1.20	73d	1	0.80mi
5757 Red Kite Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,630	$1.20	60d	1	0.81mi
17224 Auburn Arch Loop Wimauma, FL	2.0–4.0	2.5	1517	$2,900	$1.91	7d	20	1.08mi
17247 Southern Haven Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,300	$1.39	7d	1	1.10mi
5487 Blue Azure Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,250	$1.46	19d	1	1.40mi
17042 Oval Rum Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,500	$1.65	67d	1	1.45mi
17029 Blister Wing Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,900	$1.25	34d	1	1.45mi
5514 Blue Azure Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,199	$1.43	48d	1	1.46mi
5517 Blue Azure Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1841	$2,400	$1.30	38d	1	1.47mi
5517 Blue Azure Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1841	$2,450	$1.33	64d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $325,990 Active 622 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $325,990 Active 620 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $325,990 Active 619 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $325,990 Active 618 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $325,990 Active 617 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $325,990 Active 614 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $325,990 Active 612 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $325,990 Active 611 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $325,990 Active 609 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $325,990 Active 607 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $325,990 Active 606 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $325,990 Active 605 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $325,990 Active 604 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $325,990 Active 603 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $325,990 Active 600 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $325,990 Active 599 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $325,990 Active 598 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $325,990 Active 596 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $325,990 Active 595 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $325,990 Active 594 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $325,990 Active 593 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $325,990 Active 592 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $325,990 Active 590 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $325,990 Active 589 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $325,990 Active 588 DOM
26. 2026-07-04
    days on market $325,990 Active 586 DOM
27. 2026-07-02
    days on market $325,990 Active 585 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $325,990 Active 584 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $325,990 Active 583 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $325,990 Active 582 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $325,990 Active 581 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $325,990 Active 580 DOM
33. 2026-06-26
    days on market $325,990 Active 579 DOM
34. 2026-06-24
    days on market $325,990 Active 577 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $325,990 Active 575 DOM
36. 2026-06-21
    days on market $325,990 Active 574 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $325,990 Active 571 DOM
38. 2026-06-17
    days on market $325,990 Active 570 DOM
39. 2026-06-16
    days on market $325,990 Active 569 DOM
40. 2026-06-15
    days on market $325,990 Active 568 DOM
41. 2026-06-13
    days on market $325,990 Active 566 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $325,990 Active 565 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $325,990 Active 562 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $325,990 Active 561 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,990 Active 560 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,990 Active 557 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,990 Active 556 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,990 Active 555 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,990 Active 554 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,990 Active 553 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,759
• − Property taxes: −$5,291
• − Insurance: −$1,764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,517
• − Management: −$2,517
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$10,262
• Taxable loss: −$10,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,593
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting eco-conscious buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wimauma Elementary School F FL #1,882/2,144 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Shields Middle School F FL #486/571 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Lennard High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Wimauma

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #699
• US rank: #14659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wimauma, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 32,820
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $325,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $322,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $344,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $342,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-02 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $336,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-24 Listed $334,990 Zillow