1202 Chaparral Dr · The Villages, FL 32159

$329,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,527 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1997 8,591 sqft lot Est $363k · 9% under $204/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BOND PAID! ROOF (2017), HWH (2024), 2.5 TON HEAT PUMP (2025). This Charming & Well Maintained 3/2 Stetson III (Amarillo) Home is on a CORNER LOT BACKING TO THE TURTLE PRESERVE in Santo Domingo, just minutes from Spanish Springs Town Square! LIGHT & AIRY with an OPEN & SPLIT FLOOR PLAN which provides ideal privacy for guests, while the Florida Room adds additional year-round living space. Vaulted Ceilings & Tile flooring throughout the main living areas create a warm and cohesive feel throughout the home. The Bright Kitchen features white cabinetry, tiled backsplash, white appliances, and a kitchen island. The primary suite offers a large walk-in closet and a spacio

Key facts

• Florida room
• Corner lot
• 8,591 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BACKS TO TURTLE PRESERVE
• OPEN AND SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• FLORIDA ROOM
• NEARBY RECREATION CENTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association fees listed (monthly and annual) available; Builder model: Stetson III
• Financial info: Community Development District (CDD) present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Dog park; Fitness center; Golf and golf cart–friendly community; Park; Playground; Tennis courts; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces northeast
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as Stetson III model
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Paved road access; Irrigation system (reclaimed water/sprinkler recycled)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $316k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 583 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,156/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $329k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,577 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.77%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $363,426
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2016 Claudio Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,527 (0%)	3mo	$310,000	$203	89
1134 Salido Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+1%)	1mo	$360,000	$233	89
1148 Chaparral Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-9%)	0mo	$465,000	$334	83
2125 Zaragoza Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-2%)	1mo	$370,000	$248	77
2005 Claudio Ln	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,389 (-9%)	0mo	$317,000	$228	69
1504 Avila Pl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-5%)	1mo	$355,000	$244	66
1506 LA Frontera Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,527 (0%)	2mo	$330,000	$216	65
2412 Merida Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,527 (0%)	2mo	$282,500	$185	65
1903 Antonia Pl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-4%)	1mo	$380,000	$260	64
1505 Alcaraz Pl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+7%)	2mo	$384,000	$235	59
2052 Palo Alto Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,687 (+10%)	3mo	$500,000	$296	57
1312 Landeros Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-9%)	3mo	$331,000	$238	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-31,571
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $10,106
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 583
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,647/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,789

Max offer price $329,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $476	-5% $383	+0% $289	+5% $196	+10% $103
Rent	-10% $40	-5% $165	+0% $289	+5% $414	+10% $539
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $373	base $289	+0.5pp $204	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	22d	1	0.08mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	22d	1	0.35mi
2137 Gerardo Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$5,600	$2.89	22d	1	0.47mi
1505 Doria Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2048	$3,500	$1.71	22d	1	0.54mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	22d	1	0.68mi
2002 Salinas Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$5,500	$3.35	22d	1	0.69mi
722 Camino del Rey Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$2,000	$1.66	22d	1	1.05mi
1524 Martinez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1199	$2,095	$1.75	22d	1	1.07mi
1522 Yucatan Way Unit 1525265P Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1732	$1,829	$1.06	22d	1	1.09mi
13904 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	22d	1	1.14mi
1314 Corona Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$2,500	$1.51	22d	1	1.18mi
13957 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	1.19mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	22d	1	1.33mi
1304 Santa Rosa Ct Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$4,500	$3.50	22d	1	1.35mi
613 Enconto St Unit 1525268P The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,788	$1.63	22d	1	1.35mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	22d	1	1.42mi
1401 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$1,999	$1.29	25d	1	1.46mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	22d	1	1.49mi
13740 Lead LN The Villages, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,150	$2.09	22d	38	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $329,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $329,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $329,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-23
    listed $329,000 Active
17. 1997-09-12
    soldstatus $115,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,731 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,084/yr (+$90/mo · 65.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$1,647
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,030
• − Management: −$3,030
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$1,930
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$463
• After-tax cash flow: $3,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+184.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $329,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $115,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,647 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.