1100 Reynolds Rd · Lexington, TN 38351

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2002 ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.60 ACRES just outside of city limits, private, covered back porch, interior has large bedrooms, fireplace, updated kitchen cabinets & flooring. Call Barbara for more details or to schedule a showing. 731-614-3024 Seller requires a lender pre-approval for all offers subject to financing dated within 30 calendar days of the date of an offer.

Key facts

• Convenient to town
• As is condition
• Near guy b amis park

Tags

• CONVENIENT TO TOWN
• NEAR GUY B AMIS PARK
• AS IS CONDITION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.7% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#96 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Henderson County (rural): math 32% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #41 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henderson County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $100k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.13%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $7,744
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $37,509
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38351

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $623/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $782

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $100,000 Active
19. 2018-09-20
    soldstatus $45,000
20. 2014-10-10
    soldstatus $24,000 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    1.60 ACRES just outside of city limits, private, covered back porch, interior has large bedrooms, fireplace, updated kitchen cabinets & flooring. Call Barbara for more details or to schedule a showing. 731-614-3024 Seller requires a lender pre-approval for all offers subject to financing dated within 30 calendar days of the date of an offer.

21. 2014-05-23
    listed $34,900 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    1.60 ACRES just outside of city limits, private, covered back porch, interior has large bedrooms, fireplace, updated kitchen cabinets & flooring. Call Barbara for more details or to schedule a showing. 731-614-3024 Seller requires a lender pre-approval for all offers subject to financing dated within 30 calendar days of the date of an offer.

22. 2006-11-01
    soldstatus $102,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $623 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $710 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$87/yr (+$7/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$623
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,055
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$733
• After-tax cash flow: $3,784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson County
• NCES district ID: 4701800
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,119
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7114
• State rank: #41 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #10272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,958
• Population (ZIP): 17,958

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,057 people
• By 2030: 27,730 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 26,664 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,081 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 20,747 · -26.1%
• By 2100: 15,603 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.8% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -42.9pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+42.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.82%
• Current HPI: 297.0387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $100,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-10 Sold (MLS) $24,000 CWTAR
• 2014-05-23 Listed $34,900 CWTAR
• 2006-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $623 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.