7761 Fm 1251 · Henderson, TX 75652

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · Manufactured public records · 175 Days on market

Built 1976

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Opportunity – 3 Mobile Homes! Three mobile homes perfect for rental income or owner-occupancy. Each home features 2–3 bedrooms, 1–2 bathrooms. Affordable price excellent potential!

Key facts

• Built 1976
• Listed 174 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.9% in Henderson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#408 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Henderson ISD (town): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #573 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $155k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $54,739
• Equity at exit: $98,020

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $153,311
• Equity at exit: $178,257

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75652

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $792/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,194

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $193	+0% $149	+5% $105	+10% $61
Rent	-10% $40	-5% $95	+0% $149	+5% $204	+10% $258
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $189	base $149	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 166 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $155,000 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $155,000 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Investment Opportunity – 3 Mobile Homes! Three mobile homes perfect for rental income or owner-occupancy. Each home features 2–3 bedrooms, 1–2 bathrooms. Affordable price excellent potential!

18. 2026-02-28
    price $160,000 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Investment Opportunity – 3 Mobile Homes! Three mobile homes perfect for rental income or owner-occupancy. Each home features 2–3 bedrooms, 1–2 bathrooms. Affordable price excellent potential!

19. 2025-12-29
    listed $175,000 Active 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Investment Opportunity – 3 Mobile Homes! Three mobile homes perfect for rental income or owner-occupancy. Each home features 2–3 bedrooms, 1–2 bathrooms. Affordable price excellent potential!

20. 2023-09-27
    soldstatus $74,682
21. 1988-01-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,044/yr (+$170/mo · 258.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$792
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$196
• After-tax cash flow: $1,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822970
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $46,296
• Composite: 27.91/100
• National rank: #6868
• State rank: #573 of 826 in TX

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #408
• US rank: #8434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,782

Population outlook (Rusk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,498 people
• By 2030: 52,093 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 50,866 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 49,696 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 48,583 · -7.5%
• By 2100: 43,265 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 20% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Rusk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.4) · D 20.0% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -59.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.4 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.1 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Current HPI: 345.63
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+107.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $155,000 GTAR
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $160,000 GTAR
• 2025-12-29 Listed $175,000 GTAR
• 2023-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $74,682 Public Records
• 1988-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $792 · -27.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.