16171 Robinson Rd · Gulfport, MS 39503

$148,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1960 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Modest home with new luxury vinyl plank flooring comes with washer and dryer. Bonus room, about 1/3 acre and space to possibly use as pantry. All appliances convey. New heating/cooling unit and thermostat. This home is right at the border of county/city but technically it is city. Fema Live Map shows as NOT a flood zone. There is a bunch of new subfloor and supports under the home.

Key facts

• About 1/3 acre
• Bonus room
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• ABOUT 1/3 ACRE
• NEW HEATING COOLING THERMOSTAT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 4 parking spaces; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Move-in ready; HardiPlank exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; HardiPlank type siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Wood fencing; Shed(s); Property noted as 'See Remarks'; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Stone counters; Storage; Vinyl window frames
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $557 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $148k implies a 640% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.06%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $19,544
• Equity at exit: $22,067

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $98,560
• Equity at exit: $12,796

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $746/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $557

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $148,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $641	-5% $599	+0% $557	+5% $515	+10% $473
Rent	-10% $405	-5% $481	+0% $557	+5% $633	+10% $709
Rate	-1.0pp $632	-0.5pp $595	base $557	+0.5pp $519	+1.0pp $480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $148,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $148,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $148,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $148,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $148,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $148,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $148,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $148,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $148,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 384-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $148,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,169 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 56.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$746
• − Insurance: −$1,538
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable income: $4,560
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,094
• After-tax cash flow: $5,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+640.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $148,000 MLSU
• 2016-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2016): $746 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.