802 S First St · Clayton, NM 88415

$114,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · Other · 269 Days on market

Built 1955 7,750 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a ranch style home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with 1454 SF of living space. One bathroom offers tub/shower combination. the other bathroom has a large walk-in shower with double shower heads and nice utility area for washer and dryer. Beautiful kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and tract lighting. Separate dining area for entertaining. This home has original hardwood floors. Home has country shabby chic touches throughout. One car detached garage that offers a spacious workshop offering 704SF. Home has a covered back porch and overlooks a rather large yard with metal fencing for privacy. Located on large corner Lots with 7,750 SF. This home does needs minor repairs and TLC. Priced to consider these upgrades.

Key facts

• 12x21 carport
• Close to schools
• 8x10 shed

Tags

• CORNER PROPERTY
• LARGE FENCED BACK YARD
• UPDATED WORKSHOP AREA
• 8X10 SHED
• 12X21 CARPORT
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 covered/garage space, 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected / available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story / single level
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Built with standard foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Workshop (other structure); Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free‑standing range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Ceiling fans and window units for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Wood window frames

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#71 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clayton Municipal Schools (rural): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #14 of 95 in NM (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alvis Elementary (157 students, 69% FRL); Clayton High (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #98 of 110 statewide, top 94%, 131 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Clayton Municipal Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.99%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,005
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $13,095
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88415

• Home prices YoY: -12.3%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $836/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $912

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $279	-5% $247	+0% $214	+5% $182	+10% $149
Rent	-10% $121	-5% $167	+0% $214	+5% $261	+10% $308
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $243	base $214	+0.5pp $184	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,900 Active 269 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 267 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 266 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 265 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 264 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 262 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $114,900 Active 261 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 258 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 256 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,900 Active 254 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,900 Active 252 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 251 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 250 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 249 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $114,900
17. 2026-04-23
    price $124,900
18. 2025-09-23
    listed $134,900 Active
19. 2022-03-01
    soldstatus 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    This is a ranch style home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with 1454 SF of living space. One bathroom offers tub/shower combination. the other bathroom has a large walk-in shower with double shower heads and nice utility area for washer and dryer. Beautiful kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and tract lighting. Separate dining area for entertaining. This home has original hardwood floors. Home has country shabby chic touches throughout. One car detached garage that offers a spacious workshop offering 704SF. Home has a covered back porch and overlooks a rather large yard with metal fencing for privacy. Located on large corner Lots with 7,750 SF. This home does needs minor repairs and TLC. Priced to consider these upgrades.

20. 2022-01-26
    listed $79,900 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    This is a ranch style home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with 1454 SF of living space. One bathroom offers tub/shower combination. the other bathroom has a large walk-in shower with double shower heads and nice utility area for washer and dryer. Beautiful kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and tract lighting. Separate dining area for entertaining. This home has original hardwood floors. Home has country shabby chic touches throughout. One car detached garage that offers a spacious workshop offering 704SF. Home has a covered back porch and overlooks a rather large yard with metal fencing for privacy. Located on large corner Lots with 7,750 SF. This home does needs minor repairs and TLC. Priced to consider these upgrades.

21. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus 721-char remark

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    This is a ranch style home offering 3Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with 1454SF of living space. One bathroom offers a tub/shower combination. The other bathroom has a large walk in shower with double shower heads and a utility area for washer and dryer. Large kitchen with great lighting and plenty of cabinets and counter space. Separate dining area. This home has beautiful hardwood floors and the buyer will love the country touches in the home. -The detached garage has an electric door opener and room for 1 vehicle, but offers plenty of space for a large workshop area with 704SF. -Home has a covered back porch and overlooks a rather large yard with metal fencing for privacy. Located on large corner lots with 7,750SF.

22. 2020-11-23
    listed $99,000 721-char remark

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    This is a ranch style home offering 3Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with 1454SF of living space. One bathroom offers a tub/shower combination. The other bathroom has a large walk in shower with double shower heads and a utility area for washer and dryer. Large kitchen with great lighting and plenty of cabinets and counter space. Separate dining area. This home has beautiful hardwood floors and the buyer will love the country touches in the home. -The detached garage has an electric door opener and room for 1 vehicle, but offers plenty of space for a large workshop area with 704SF. -Home has a covered back porch and overlooks a rather large yard with metal fencing for privacy. Located on large corner lots with 7,750SF.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 10.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$836
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,135
• − Management: −$1,135
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $732
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$176
• After-tax cash flow: $2,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clayton Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500510
• Math proficiency: 36% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $37,808
• Composite: 33.78/100
• National rank: #10400
• State rank: #14 of 95 in NM

Livability — Clayton

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #14705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clayton, NM
• Population (ZIP): 3,143

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,632 people
• By 2030: 3,403 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 3,115 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 2,838 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 2,097 · -42.3%
• By 2100: 1,481 · -59.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 22% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.7% · R 74.9% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.0pp toward R · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+56.2 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+43.4 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.42%
• Current HPI: 123.6201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+16.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $114,900 NMMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $124,900 NMMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $134,900 NMMLS
• 2022-03-01 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2022-01-26 Listed $79,900 NMMLS
• 2021-02-23 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2020-11-23 Listed $99,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $836 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.