Plan 1676 Modeled Plan · Beasley, TX 77417

$209,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily · 259 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Extra storage space
• Low-e windows

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• 6-PANEL INTERIOR DOORS

🏗️ New construction. The $209,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $263,028.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-430 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 5.6% in Beasley — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,273 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,608 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.01%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,028
• List price: $209,995
• Delta: -20.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2235 Hawthorn Grove St	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,772 (+6%)	1mo	$229,995	$130	85
7214 Brooklea Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,549 (-8%)	3mo	$223,882	$145	81
2507 Spruce Hill Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,793 (+7%)	0mo	$240,582	$134	78
2239 Hawthorn Grove St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-19%)	0mo	$205,753	$151	72
7211 Saddle Crest Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,004 (+20%)	3mo	$263,028	$131	68
1811 Beasley West End Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,991 (+19%)	8mo	$378,500	$190	48
6842 Pelican Ln	0.78mi	3/2.0	1,753 (+5%)	14mo	$530,000	$302	46
6514 Track Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-13%)	20mo	$149,000	$102	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $20,704
• Equity at exit: $135,722

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $92,925
• Equity at exit: $223,890

Cash invested: $73,648 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.2 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $219,995 ($126/sqft)
• Median days on market: 260 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$329 /mo · $3,945/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,301

Max offer price $200,745

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-249	-5% $-340	+0% $-430	+5% $-521	+10% $-612
Rent	-10% $-569	-5% $-500	+0% $-430	+5% $-361	+10% $-292
Rate	-1.0pp $-298	-0.5pp $-364	base $-430	+0.5pp $-499	+1.0pp $-568

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,757
• Closing costs: $7,891
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $209,995 Active 259 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $209,995 Active 257 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $209,995 Active 256 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $209,995 Active 255 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $209,995 Active 254 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $209,995 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $209,995 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $209,995 Active 248 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $209,995 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $209,995 Active 244 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $209,995 Active 243 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $209,995 Active 242 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $209,995 Active 241 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $209,995 Active 240 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $209,995 Active 237 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $209,995 Active 236 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $209,995 Active 235 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $209,995 Active 234 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $209,995 Active 233 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $209,995 Active 232 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $209,995 Active 231 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $209,995 Active 230 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $209,995 Active 229 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $209,995 Active 227 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $209,995 Active 226 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $209,995 Active 225 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $209,995 Active 224 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $209,995 Active 223 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $209,995 Active 222 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $209,995 Active 221 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $209,995 Active 220 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $209,995 Active 219 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $209,995 Active 218 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $209,995 Active 217 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $209,995 Active 216 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $214,995 Active 214 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $214,995 Active 212 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $214,995 Active 211 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $214,995 Active 208 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $214,995 Active 207 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $214,995 Active 206 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $214,995 Active 205 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $214,995 Active 203 DOM
44. 2026-06-10
    days on market $214,995 Active 199 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $214,995 Active 198 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $214,995 Active 197 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,995 Active 194 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,995 Active 193 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,995 Active 192 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,995 Active 191 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,734
• − Property taxes: −$3,945
• − Insurance: −$1,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$7,652
• Taxable loss: −$9,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,387
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,375–$25,125 screening

The home is in good condition with no visible damage. It has a good exterior, roof, flooring, interior walls/paint, systems, landscaping, and fencing. The home has a good potential for value increase with some cosmetic updates and smart home integration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Interior touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Smart home integration can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Beasley El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle George J H F TX #1,156/1,662 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High B F Terry H S F TX #888/1,632 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Beasley

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1273
• US rank: #22130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,232
• Household income: $60,809
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $214,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $213,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $223,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $233,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Listed $243,995 Zillow