Plan 1676 Modeled Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$214,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily · 211 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Extra storage space * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 5-panel interior doors * Den * Open floor plan * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Extra storage space
• Low-e windows

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• 6-PANEL INTERIOR DOORS

🏗️ New construction. The $214,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $263,028.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,950 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,028
• List price: $214,995
• Delta: -18.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7214 Brooklea Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,549 (-8%)	1mo	$223,882	$145	82
6514 Track Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-13%)	18mo	$149,000	$102	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $26,413
• Equity at exit: $135,722

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $105,251
• Equity at exit: $223,890

Cash invested: $73,648 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$329 /mo · $3,945/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,301

Max offer price $213,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-159	-5% $-250	+0% $-341	+5% $-432	+10% $-523
Rent	-10% $-489	-5% $-415	+0% $-341	+5% $-267	+10% $-193
Rate	-1.0pp $-208	-0.5pp $-274	base $-341	+0.5pp $-409	+1.0pp $-478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,757
• Closing costs: $7,891
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $214,995 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,995 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,995 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,995 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,995 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,995 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $214,995 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,995 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,995 Active 197 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,995 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,995 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,995 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,995 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,995 Active 190 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $214,995 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Extra storage space * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 5-panel interior doors * Den * Open floor plan * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

16. 2026-04-01
    price $213,995 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Extra storage space * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 5-panel interior doors * Den * Open floor plan * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

17. 2026-02-06
    price $223,995 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Extra storage space * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 5-panel interior doors * Den * Open floor plan * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

18. 2025-12-12
    price $233,995 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Extra storage space * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 5-panel interior doors * Den * Open floor plan * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

19. 2025-11-22
    listed $243,995 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Extra storage space * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 5-panel interior doors * Den * Open floor plan * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,734
• − Property taxes: −$3,945
• − Insurance: −$1,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$7,652
• Taxable loss: −$8,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,112
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with no visible damage. It has a good exterior, roof, flooring, interior walls/paint, systems, landscaping, and fencing. The home has a good potential for value increase with some cosmetic updates and smart home integration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Interior touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and increase the home's value.
• Both Smart home integration — Smart home integration can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Interior touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Smart home integration can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $214,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $213,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $223,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $233,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Listed $243,995 Zillow