69561 Papoose Trl · Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$230,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1958 3.63 ac lot $160/sqft · 23% below area Est $299k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

APPROVED PLANS IN PLACE! Unlock the potential of this prime investment opportunity located at 69561 Papoose Trail. What truly sets this property apart are the approved plans already in place. Allowing you to skip the time-consuming entitlement process and move straight into execution. Ideal for investors looking to add a potential Airbnb or short-term rental to their portfolio, the groundwork has already been done for you. Don’t miss this opportunity to bring the vision to life. The property isn’t currently set up for traditional financing due to it's need for repairs. CASH OFFERS ONLY.

Key facts

• 3.63 acre lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 86 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in Twentynine Palms — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,653 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.80%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,000
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -23.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
875 Lear Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-1%)	8mo	$375,000	$264	66
69526 Gemini Rd	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,626 (+13%)	14mo	$150,000	$92	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-44,338
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-40,314
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92277

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 734
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,455/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,907

Max offer price $203,419

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $240,000 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    APPROVED PLANS IN PLACE! Unlock the potential of this prime investment opportunity located at 69561 Papoose Trail. What truly sets this property apart are the approved plans already in place. Allowing you to skip the time-consuming entitlement process and move straight into execution. Ideal for investors looking to add a potential Airbnb or short-term rental to their portfolio, the groundwork has already been done for you. Don’t miss this opportunity to bring the vision to life. The property isn’t currently set up for traditional financing due to it's need for repairs. CASH OFFERS ONLY.

16. 2026-03-23
    listed $250,000 Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    APPROVED PLANS IN PLACE! Unlock the potential of this prime investment opportunity located at 69561 Papoose Trail. What truly sets this property apart are the approved plans already in place. Allowing you to skip the time-consuming entitlement process and move straight into execution. Ideal for investors looking to add a potential Airbnb or short-term rental to their portfolio, the groundwork has already been done for you. Don’t miss this opportunity to bring the vision to life. The property isn’t currently set up for traditional financing due to it's need for repairs. CASH OFFERS ONLY.

17. 2023-08-15
    soldstatus $199,999 Closed Sale 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

18. 2023-08-15
    soldstatus $200,000

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

19. 2023-08-02
    historical Active Under Contract 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

20. 2023-06-16
    price $207,900 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

21. 2023-04-06
    status Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

22. 2023-04-02
    status Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

23. 2023-03-29
    status Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

24. 2023-01-22
    status Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

25. 2023-01-22
    price $175,000 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

26. 2023-01-18
    status Active Under Contract 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

27. 2023-01-12
    price $255,000 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

28. 2022-12-19
    price $205,000 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

29. 2022-12-19
    price $182,500 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

30. 2022-12-02
    listed $205,000 Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Charming Country style home on a spacious and meticulously laid out 3.5 acre of land gorgeous views with natural desert landscape and mature trees, Far away enough to enjoy your peace and tranquillity of the evening stars and wildlife yet close enough to all the convenient nearby shopping of downtown, 29 and the base. Owner is offering the new owner building material which is already purchased to compete the remodel of the bathroom to make it your own.

31. 2015-11-18
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed Sale
32. 2015-10-29
    status Pending Sale
33. 2015-07-31
    status Active
34. 2015-07-27
    historical
35. 2015-06-10
    listed $45,000 Active
36. 2001-02-01
    soldstatus $35,000
37. 2000-06-18
    historical
38. 1999-10-18
    listed $49,000
39. 1981-05-28
    soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,455 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,455 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,455
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,410
• After-tax cash flow: $-395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Twentynine Palms

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 26,277
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,277
• Household income: $60,901
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 9% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.15%
• Current HPI: 380.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+627.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $240,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-15 Sold (MLS) $199,999 CRMLS
• 2023-08-02 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-06-16 Price Changed $207,900 CRMLS
• 2023-04-06 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-04-02 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-03-29 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-01-22 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-01-22 Price Changed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2023-01-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-01-12 Price Changed $255,000 CRMLS
• 2022-12-19 Price Changed $205,000 CRMLS
• 2022-12-19 Price Changed $182,500 CRMLS
• 2022-12-02 Listed $205,000 CRMLS
• 2015-11-18 Sold (MLS) $45,000 CRMLS
• 2015-10-29 Pending — CRMLS
• 2015-07-31 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2015-07-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2015-06-10 Listed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2001-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2000-06-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1999-10-18 Listed $49,000 CRMLS
• 1981-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,455 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.