20802 W Beacon Ct · Surprise, AZ 85361

$289,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2004 1.26 ac lot Est $372k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED! Back on market!!! Great price for this large 4 bedroom 3 bath manufactured home on huge, fenced 1+ acre lot. This property has room to spread out! Bring your toys and horses. Home has large 2 card detached garage, separate family and living rooms, split floorplan, inside laundry room, storage closets, cabinets and desk, upgraded kitchen with appliances and island, large bedrooms, and more! Hurry before this home is sold!

Key facts

• Fully usable lot
• Split floorpan
• Detached garage

Tags

• SPLIT FLOORPAN
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• LARGE KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• FULLY USABLE LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• AMPLE SPACE FOR EXPANSION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nadaburg Elementary School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 414 students, 57% FRL); Mountainside High School (223 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $290k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,415 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.90%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $371,640
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20802 W Beacon Ct	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,280 (0%)	1mo	$295,000	$129	99
26832 N 204th Pl	0.43mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,052 (-10%)	0mo	$424,000	$207	58
21006 N Big Horn Mountain Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,269 (-0%)	18mo	$370,000	$163	53
27208 N 204th Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,029 (-11%)	16mo	$310,000	$153	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $165,934
• Equity at exit: $261,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $481,941
• Equity at exit: $563,212

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $988/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,182

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $211	+0% $128	+5% $46	+10% $-36
Rent	-10% $-57	-5% $36	+0% $128	+5% $221	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $202	base $128	+0.5pp $53	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   price $289,900
3. 2026-04-14
   listed $299,900 Active
4. 2025-04-03
   historical
5. 2024-11-23
   price $425,000
6. 2024-10-28
   listed $445,000 Active
7. 2019-06-14
   soldstatus $160,141 Closed 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! Back on market!!! Great price for this large 4 bedroom 3 bath manufactured home on huge, fenced 1+ acre lot. This property has room to spread out! Bring your toys and horses. Home has large 2 card detached garage, separate family and living rooms, split floorplan, inside laundry room, storage closets, cabinets and desk, upgraded kitchen with appliances and island, large bedrooms, and more! Hurry before this home is sold!

8. 2019-04-01
   status Pending 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! Back on market!!! Great price for this large 4 bedroom 3 bath manufactured home on huge, fenced 1+ acre lot. This property has room to spread out! Bring your toys and horses. Home has large 2 card detached garage, separate family and living rooms, split floorplan, inside laundry room, storage closets, cabinets and desk, upgraded kitchen with appliances and island, large bedrooms, and more! Hurry before this home is sold!

9. 2019-03-27
   price $161,920 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! Back on market!!! Great price for this large 4 bedroom 3 bath manufactured home on huge, fenced 1+ acre lot. This property has room to spread out! Bring your toys and horses. Home has large 2 card detached garage, separate family and living rooms, split floorplan, inside laundry room, storage closets, cabinets and desk, upgraded kitchen with appliances and island, large bedrooms, and more! Hurry before this home is sold!

10. 2019-03-19
    status Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Back on market!!! Great price for this large 4 bedroom 3 bath manufactured home on huge, fenced 1+ acre lot. This property has room to spread out! Bring your toys and horses. Home has large 2 card detached garage, separate family and living rooms, split floorplan, inside laundry room, storage closets, cabinets and desk, upgraded kitchen with appliances and island, large bedrooms, and more! Hurry before this home is sold!

11. 2019-03-12
    status Pending 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Back on market!!! Great price for this large 4 bedroom 3 bath manufactured home on huge, fenced 1+ acre lot. This property has room to spread out! Bring your toys and horses. Home has large 2 card detached garage, separate family and living rooms, split floorplan, inside laundry room, storage closets, cabinets and desk, upgraded kitchen with appliances and island, large bedrooms, and more! Hurry before this home is sold!

12. 2019-02-16
    price $176,000 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Back on market!!! Great price for this large 4 bedroom 3 bath manufactured home on huge, fenced 1+ acre lot. This property has room to spread out! Bring your toys and horses. Home has large 2 card detached garage, separate family and living rooms, split floorplan, inside laundry room, storage closets, cabinets and desk, upgraded kitchen with appliances and island, large bedrooms, and more! Hurry before this home is sold!

13. 2019-01-16
    listed $200,000 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Back on market!!! Great price for this large 4 bedroom 3 bath manufactured home on huge, fenced 1+ acre lot. This property has room to spread out! Bring your toys and horses. Home has large 2 card detached garage, separate family and living rooms, split floorplan, inside laundry room, storage closets, cabinets and desk, upgraded kitchen with appliances and island, large bedrooms, and more! Hurry before this home is sold!

14. 1989-11-14
    soldstatus $30,000
15. 1985-06-21
    soldstatus $15,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,913 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$925/yr (+$77/mo · 93.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$988
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
• − Management: −$2,250
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$3,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$835
• After-tax cash flow: $2,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 160,031
• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1723.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $289,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $299,900 ARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-11-23 Price Changed $425,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-28 Listed $445,000 ARMLS
• 2019-06-14 Sold (MLS) $160,141 ARMLS
• 2019-04-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-03-27 Price Changed $161,920 ARMLS
• 2019-03-19 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2019-03-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-02-16 Price Changed $176,000 ARMLS
• 2019-01-16 Listed $200,000 ARMLS
• 1989-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1985-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $988 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.