12951 1st St · Clearlake Oaks, CA 95423

$149,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1960 4,792 sqft lot Est $186k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute and affordable 2 bedroom, 1 bath home with a fireplace. Needs some TLC but perfect for the first time homebuyer! Fenced in yard and a storage shed. Fireplace: Built-In.

Key facts

• Newer comp roof
• Rock fireplace
• Solar lease

Tags

• NEW CARPETS
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• ROCK FIREPLACE
• KITCHEN HAS ISLAND
• SOLAR LEASE
• NEWER COMP ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-unit property; No accessory dwelling unit (ADU)
• HOA & community: Community offers watersports, fishing, lake access, rural and mountainous surroundings

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; Attached carport
• Security: Smoke detector; Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public/district water; Telephone in street; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: House; One story; Entry at main level; R1 zoning
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Built year per public records
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Porch; Patio; Shed and outbuilding; Level lot with front and back yard; Lot is level/flat; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Formica counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast counter/bar and eating area; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tile counters and shower
• Heating & cooling: Fireplace heating; Evaporative cooling; Has heating; Has cooling; Fireplace located in living room
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; No interior steps (single-level entry); Living room entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup in carport; Laundry located in carport

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.3% in Clearlake Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#569 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $149k implies a 366% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,640
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12881 4th	0.20mi	2/1.0 (+1)	640 (-6%)	4mo	$50,000	$78	72
13330 1st St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (+1)	768 (+13%)	8mo	$210,000	$273	51
12929 Oak Knoll Ave	0.61mi	1/1.5	744 (+9%)	16mo	$210,000	$282	40
12526 Oak St	0.51mi	2/2.0 (+1)	752 (+11%)	16mo	$170,000	$226	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,209
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,695
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95423

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,557 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,589/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,341

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 317-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,589 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,589 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,589
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,495
• − Management: −$1,495
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$318
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$76
• After-tax cash flow: $2,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake Oaks

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #18675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake Oaks, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,432

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.32%
• Current HPI: 178.9812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+198.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $149,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-03-05 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-01-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-12-21 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $149,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $185,000 CRMLS
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $189,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $194,900 CRMLS
• 2024-07-11 Listed $200,000 CRMLS
• 2009-12-30 Sold (MLS) $32,000 CRMLS
• 2009-10-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-10-09 Listed $39,900 CRMLS
• 2009-07-17 Listed $44,900 CRMLS
• 2001-07-31 Sold (MLS) $49,500 CRMLS
• 2001-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 1998-08-28 Listed $49,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,589 · +229.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.