306 N Holmes St · Cambridge, IL 61238

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,131 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1907 Est $126k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO OFFERS WILL BE RESPONDED WITHIN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF MARKET TIME. Being sold in "As Is" condition. Small town living! Two story, vinyl sided home with a 2 car detached garage. The main level has the living room as well as a family room! There is also a den on the main level plus laundry for convenience! The living room and family room have hardwood floors, the kitchen has vinyl and the bedrooms and den have carpeting. Full basement to use your imagination on. The lot is a good size with 0.580 acre.

Key facts

• Expansive yard
• Two separate garages
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOM
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• TWO SEPARATE GARAGES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#584 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cambridge CUSD 227 (rural): math 28% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #215 of 620 in IL (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $115k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,541
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 E Illinois St	0.06mi	3/1.0	988 (-13%)	0mo	$110,000	$111	76
103 S Prospect St	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+2%)	14mo	$120,000	$104	68
103 S Prospect St	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+2%)	14mo	$120,000	$104	68
309 E South St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,154 (+2%)	9mo	$90,000	$78	65
309 E South St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,154 (+2%)	9mo	$90,000	$78	65
503 N Prospect St	0.21mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (+6%)	13mo	$135,500	$113	62
503 N Prospect St	0.21mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (+6%)	13mo	$135,500	$113	62
419 N Main St	0.44mi	3/1.0	962 (-15%)	12mo	$145,000	$151	44
406 Elk St	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-11%)	15mo	$165,000	$164	40
319 W South St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+9%)	23mo	$112,000	$91	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $59,203
• Equity at exit: $90,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $165,012
• Equity at exit: $181,343

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61238

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,472/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $979

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $179	+0% $146	+5% $114	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $100	+0% $146	+5% $192	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $175	base $146	+0.5pp $116	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 683-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $115,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,472 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,041 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$569/yr (+$47/mo · 38.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,472
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$97
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$23
• After-tax cash flow: $1,778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cambridge CUSD 227
• NCES district ID: 1708160
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,653
• Composite: 28.79/100
• National rank: #6663
• State rank: #215 of 620 in IL

Livability — Cambridge

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #584
• US rank: #12167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cambridge, IL
• Population (ZIP): 2,705

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,376 people
• By 2030: 45,920 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 42,829 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 39,606 · -16.4%
• By 2075: 31,848 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 23,503 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: English 6% Scottish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.5) · D 36.8% · R 61.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.5 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+21.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.34%
• Current HPI: 276.25
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+78.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $115,000 FSBO.com
• 2019-06-27 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-27 Sold (MLS) $50,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-08 Listed $48,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-08 Listed $48,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-31 Sold (MLS) $64,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-31 Sold (MLS) $64,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-10 Listed $64,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-10 Listed $64,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,472 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.