1005 Hibernia Forest Dr · Fleming Island, FL 32003

$299,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1977 0.43 ac lot Est $352k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the heart of Fleming Island, this 4 bed, 2 bath home is packed with potential and priced to allow the next owner to bring their vision to life. With major system updates already completed - including a 2021 roof, 2020 HVAC, new exterior doors, and updated windows - the heavy lifting has already been started. Inside, the home offers solid bones and a functional layout, while cosmetic updates like kitchen, bath, flooring, and fixture renovations provide an incredible opportunity to customize the space exactly to your taste. The price reflects these updates needed, making this a rare chance to get into Fleming Island at an approachable price point. Enjoy features that are increasing

Key facts

• Screened patio
• 2021 roof
• New exterior doors

Tags

• 2021 ROOF
• 2020 HVAC
• NEW EXTERIOR DOORS
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• CONCRETE PARKING PAD DRIVEWAY
• SCREENED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private above-ground pool; 0.43-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Central heating and central air
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Fleming Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#74 in FL, #1,239 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $300k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,091 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $351,936
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1025 Fleming St	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,652 (-2%)	12mo	$340,000	$206	75
965 Florida St	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,659 (-2%)	8mo	$345,000	$208	73
959 Florida St	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,659 (-2%)	10mo	$343,900	$207	72
884 Live Oak Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-7%)	7mo	$370,000	$235	70
861 Hibernia Forest Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-5%)	12mo	$346,430	$216	69
762 Hibernia Forest Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (-6%)	6mo	$399,900	$252	66
1259 Fleming St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,590 (-6%)	12mo	$314,500	$198	59
1401 Florida St	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,762 (+4%)	12mo	$380,000	$216	58
1014 Clay St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,909 (+13%)	9mo	$362,500	$190	56
2315 Wood Hollow Ln #B	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,664 (-2%)	12mo	$271,500	$163	50
1804 Eagle Crest Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,870 (+10%)	11mo	$375,000	$201	42
573 Hagans Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,570 (-7%)	12mo	$369,900	$236	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-53,947
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-52,921
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32003

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,837/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,343

Max offer price $284,291

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1630 Vineland Cir Unit B Fleming Island, FL	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,000	$1.20	24d	1	0.54mi
6377 Island Forest Dr Fleming Island, FL	3.0	2.5	2029	$2,295	$1.13	24d	1	1.30mi
6377 Island Forest Dr Unit E Fleming Island, FL	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,295	$1.32	12d	1	1.30mi
6377 Island Forest Dr Unit D Fleming Island, FL	3.0	2.5	1737	$2,175	$1.25	3d	1	1.30mi
6281 Island Forest Dr Fleming Island, FL	3.0	3.5	1676	$2,095	$1.25	24d	1	1.37mi
1500 Calming Water Dr Fleming Island, FL	3.0	2.5–3.0	1654	$1,872	$1.13	21d	3	1.46mi
1500 Calming Water Dr Fleming Island, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1394	$1,750	$1.26	8d	3	1.46mi
1500 Calming Water Dr Fleming Island, FL	3.0	2.5–3.0	1817	$1,995	$1.10	24d	2	1.46mi
1500 Calming Water Dr Fleming Island, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1394	$1,750	$1.26	12d	2	1.46mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   status Active
3. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
4. 2026-05-11
   listed $299,990 Active
5. 2007-10-18
   soldstatus $119,000
6. 1979-01-01
   soldstatus $35,460

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,837 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$653/yr (+$54/mo · 35.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$1,837
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,381
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,531
• After-tax cash flow: $465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fleming Island

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #1239

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fleming Island, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 29,766
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,766
• Household income: $116,611
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 346.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.99%
• Current HPI: 267.3094
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.19%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+746.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-19 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $299,990 realMLS
• 2007-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 1979-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,460 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,837 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.