24794 Turning Leaf Dr · Robertsdale, AL 36551

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2016 0.40 ac lot $111/sqft · 104% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCTION! Motivated seller!! Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2016, located in the Crystal Orchard Estates community. Offering approximately 1,800 square feet of living space, this well-maintained home sits on 0.40 of an acre, providing plenty of room to enjoy both indoor and outdoor living. Inside, you’ll find durable vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas and a cozy fireplace that creates a warm focal point in the living room—great for relaxing evenings at home. The open layout offers generous living space and comfortable bedrooms, making it everyday living. Step outside to enjoy the covered front porch, a great spot for morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. The property also offers ample yard space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future additions. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines space, comfort, and accessibility. Priced at $215,000, this property offers a great opportunity. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Vinyl flooring
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• COZY FIREPLACE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• AMPLE YARD SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.4% in Robertsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#371 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $199k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,772
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 103.53%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24504 Pecan Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,734 (-4%)	7mo	$48,000	$28	75
16066 Pecan View Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+7%)	12mo	$95,900	$50	63
24098 Gemstone Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,742 (-3%)	14mo	$138,000	$79	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-20,106
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,792
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36551

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $328	-5% $259	+0% $190	+5% $121	+10% $53
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $112	+0% $190	+5% $268	+10% $347
Rate	-1.0pp $290	-0.5pp $241	base $190	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24304 Raynagua Blvd Loxley, AL	3.0	2.0	1743	$2,045	$1.17	14d	1	0.24mi
24249 Gemstone Dr Loxley, AL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,795	$1.35	44d	1	0.50mi
25472 Overlook Dr Loxley, AL	4.0	4.0	1955	$2,000	$1.02	44d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    price $205,000 1077-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1077 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION! Motivated seller!! Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2016, located in the Crystal Orchard Estates community. Offering approximately 1,800 square feet of living space, this well-maintained home sits on 0.40 of an acre, providing plenty of room to enjoy both indoor and outdoor living. Inside, you’ll find durable vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas and a cozy fireplace that creates a warm focal point in the living room—great for relaxing evenings at home. The open layout offers generous living space and comfortable bedrooms, making it everyday living. Step outside to enjoy the covered front porch, a great spot for morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. The property also offers ample yard space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future additions. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines space, comfort, and accessibility. Priced at $215,000, this property offers a great opportunity. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2026-04-06
    price $215,000 1077-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1077 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION! Motivated seller!! Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2016, located in the Crystal Orchard Estates community. Offering approximately 1,800 square feet of living space, this well-maintained home sits on 0.40 of an acre, providing plenty of room to enjoy both indoor and outdoor living. Inside, you’ll find durable vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas and a cozy fireplace that creates a warm focal point in the living room—great for relaxing evenings at home. The open layout offers generous living space and comfortable bedrooms, making it everyday living. Step outside to enjoy the covered front porch, a great spot for morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. The property also offers ample yard space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future additions. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines space, comfort, and accessibility. Priced at $215,000, this property offers a great opportunity. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2026-03-13
    listed $225,000 Active 1077-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1077 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION! Motivated seller!! Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2016, located in the Crystal Orchard Estates community. Offering approximately 1,800 square feet of living space, this well-maintained home sits on 0.40 of an acre, providing plenty of room to enjoy both indoor and outdoor living. Inside, you’ll find durable vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas and a cozy fireplace that creates a warm focal point in the living room—great for relaxing evenings at home. The open layout offers generous living space and comfortable bedrooms, making it everyday living. Step outside to enjoy the covered front porch, a great spot for morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. The property also offers ample yard space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future additions. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines space, comfort, and accessibility. Priced at $215,000, this property offers a great opportunity. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

21. 2019-08-01
    soldstatus $129,653
22. 2019-07-26
    soldstatus $129,500 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Beautiful Riverbirch Mobile home less than 5 years old and in a wonderful setting on just over 1/4 acre in Crystal Orchard Estates Subdivision. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with 1800 square feet of living space. The spacious living room opens to a large, beautiful kitchen. The home features a luxurious master bathroom boasting an oval soaking tub, large shower, and extra large walk-in closet.

23. 2019-03-11
    listed $129,500 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Beautiful Riverbirch Mobile home less than 5 years old and in a wonderful setting on just over 1/4 acre in Crystal Orchard Estates Subdivision. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with 1800 square feet of living space. The spacious living room opens to a large, beautiful kitchen. The home features a luxurious master bathroom boasting an oval soaking tub, large shower, and extra large walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$226
• After-tax cash flow: $2,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Robertsdale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #21424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,095
• Population (ZIP): 12,915

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.18%
• Current HPI: 291.8584
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+58.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $205,000 BCAR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $215,000 BCAR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $225,000 BCAR
• 2019-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $129,653 Public Records
• 2019-07-26 Sold (MLS) $129,500 BCAR
• 2019-03-11 Listed $129,500 BCAR

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $377 · +49.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.