13412 Fenwick Stream Dr · Balm, FL 33598

$384,400

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $133/sqft · 5% below area Est $406k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

This single-family home boasts five bedrooms across two stories. A versatile flex room sits off the foyer and a modern open-concept design brightens the kitchen, dining room and family room. The sprawling owner's suite enjoys privacy on the ground floor with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet, while the remaining four bedrooms and spacious loft are upstairs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 45 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $384k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-344 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 962 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 120d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $292,760 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $406,185
• List price: $384,400
• Delta: -5.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15017 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.31mi	5/3.0	2,605 (-10%)	0mo	$418,798	$161	66
14807 Grady Sweat Ln	0.52mi	5/3.0	2,786 (-4%)	3mo	$660,000	$237	65
15102 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.40mi	5/3.0	2,605 (-10%)	5mo	$409,740	$157	59
13606 New Jade Ave	0.40mi	5/3.0	2,490 (-14%)	0mo	$393,990	$158	56
13610 New Jade Ave	0.41mi	5/3.0	2,490 (-14%)	0mo	$409,990	$165	55
13405 New Jade Ave	0.35mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,576 (-11%)	5mo	$402,630	$156	54
15157 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.25mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,326 (+15%)	8mo	$438,300	$132	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-82,103
• Equity at exit: $68,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-123,362
• Equity at exit: $52,957

Cash invested: $107,632 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.8 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $389,000 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 153 d
• This list price: 34% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 962
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,016
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$480 /mo · $5,766/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $-344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,363

Max offer price $334,666

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-78	-5% $-211	+0% $-344	+5% $-477	+10% $-609
Rent	-10% $-575	-5% $-459	+0% $-344	+5% $-228	+10% $-112
Rate	-1.0pp $-150	-0.5pp $-246	base $-344	+0.5pp $-443	+1.0pp $-545

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,100
• Closing costs: $11,532
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15007 Coltman Hill Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,550	$1.33	120d	1	0.13mi
13191 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	84d	1	0.71mi
13181 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	120d	1	0.72mi
13095 Calcite Blue Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,300	$1.19	113d	1	0.83mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 13412 Fenwick Stream Dr, Wimauma, FL 33598Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-06-02
• Financial info: List price $402,500

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (total 2 parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Raleigh plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2896

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Raleigh plan)

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-07-18
   pricedays on market $384,400 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-07-16
   days on market $384,300 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-07-15
   days on market $384,300 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-07-14
   price $384,300 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $384,200 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-07-13
   pricedays on market $384,200 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-07-11
   days on market $384,100 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-07-10
   days on market $384,100 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-07-09
   pricedays on market $384,100 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-07-07
    days on market $404,100 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-07-06
    days on market $404,100 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-07-06
    days on market $404,100 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $404,100 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-07-04
    pricedays on market $404,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $403,900 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-07-01
    days on market $409,800 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-06-30
    days on market $409,800 Active 28 DOM
18. 2026-06-29
    price $409,800 Active 27 DOM
19. 2026-06-29
    days on market $409,700 Active 27 DOM
20. 2026-06-28
    price $409,700 Active 26 DOM
21. 2026-06-28
    days on market $409,600 Active 26 DOM
22. 2026-06-27
    days on market $409,600 Active 25 DOM
23. 2026-06-26
    days on market $409,600 Active 24 DOM
24. 2026-06-24
    days on market $409,600 Active 22 DOM
25. 2026-06-22
    days on market $409,600 Active 20 DOM
26. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $409,600 Active 19 DOM
27. 2026-06-18
    days on market $407,600 Active 16 DOM
28. 2026-06-17
    days on market $407,600 Active 15 DOM
29. 2026-06-16
    days on market $407,600 Active 14 DOM
30. 2026-06-15
    price $407,600 Active 13 DOM
31. 2026-06-15
    days on market $405,000 Active 13 DOM
32. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $405,000 Active 11 DOM
33. 2026-06-13
    days on market $404,800 Active 10 DOM
34. 2026-06-09
    days on market $404,800 Active 7 DOM
35. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $404,800 Active 6 DOM
36. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $402,600 Active 5 DOM
37. 2026-06-04
    days on market $402,500 Active 2 DOM
38. 2026-06-02
    remarks 366-char remark
39. 2026-06-02
    listed $402,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,532
• − Property taxes: −$5,766
• − Insurance: −$1,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,810
• − Management: −$2,810
• − Depreciation: −$11,183
• Taxable loss: −$10,893
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,614
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern design and ample space. It is move-in ready and would appeal to both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace carpet in living areas — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wimauma Elementary School F FL #1,882/2,144 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Shields Middle School F FL #486/571 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Lennard High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 13412 Fenwick Stream Dr, Wimauma, FL 33598Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-06-02
• Financial info: List price $402,500

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (total 2 parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Raleigh plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2896

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Raleigh plan)