23 Ponderosa Dr · Mayhill, NM 88339

$99,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1964 0.75 ac lot ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home was built in 1964, and was used as a part time summer get away until 3 years ago and is being sold "AS IS WHERE IS", just needs some fixing up and TLC. Make a reasonable offer and make it your summer get away. Price includes additional . 50 acre adjoining lot.

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1964

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#181 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute D-.
• Cloudcroft Municipal Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #12 of 95 in NM (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $784 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.34%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,751
• Equity at exit: $25,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $29,791
• Equity at exit: $27,164

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88339

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $232/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $737

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,500 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,500 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,500 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,500 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 163 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,500 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-02-12
    price $110,000 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    This home was built in 1964, and was used as a part time summer get away until 3 years ago and is being sold "AS IS WHERE IS", just needs some fixing up and TLC. Make a reasonable offer and make it your summer get away. Price includes additional . 50 acre adjoining lot.

18. 2026-01-03
    status Active 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    This home was built in 1964, and was used as a part time summer get away until 3 years ago and is being sold "AS IS WHERE IS", just needs some fixing up and TLC. Make a reasonable offer and make it your summer get away. Price includes additional . 50 acre adjoining lot.

19. 2026-01-03
    price $125,000 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    This home was built in 1964, and was used as a part time summer get away until 3 years ago and is being sold "AS IS WHERE IS", just needs some fixing up and TLC. Make a reasonable offer and make it your summer get away. Price includes additional . 50 acre adjoining lot.

20. 2025-12-06
    status Pending 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    This home was built in 1964, and was used as a part time summer get away until 3 years ago and is being sold "AS IS WHERE IS", just needs some fixing up and TLC. Make a reasonable offer and make it your summer get away. Price includes additional . 50 acre adjoining lot.

21. 2025-11-17
    listed $130,000 Active 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    This home was built in 1964, and was used as a part time summer get away until 3 years ago and is being sold "AS IS WHERE IS", just needs some fixing up and TLC. Make a reasonable offer and make it your summer get away. Price includes additional . 50 acre adjoining lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $232 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $796 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$564/yr (+$47/mo · 242.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥84°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$232
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$943
• − Management: −$943
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$170
• After-tax cash flow: $2,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cloudcroft Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500540
• Math proficiency: 28% —
• Reading proficiency: 48% —
• Median HH income: $45,499
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #9996
• State rank: #12 of 95 in NM

Livability — Mayhill

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #22598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 664

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 14% Italian 10% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Current HPI: 171.7069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $110,000 OCAOR
• 2026-01-03 Relisted — OCAOR
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $125,000 OCAOR
• 2025-12-06 Pending — OCAOR
• 2025-11-17 Listed $130,000 OCAOR

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $232 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.