187 Shadeville Rd · Crawfordville, FL 32327

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · Land · 250 Days on market

Built 2025 0.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

The Jackson Plan - 1,418 sq ft 4 bedroom 2 bathroom. Finishes include vinyl plank flooring throughout, tiled shower in owner's suite, stainless steel appliance package, laminate countertops. No HOA. Estimated completion date November 2025

Key facts

• Laminate countertops
• Vinyl plank flooring
• Tiled shower

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TILED SHOWER
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Parking space(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction; Fiber cement exterior; Has home warranty
• Construction: Fiber cement construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch/patio; Paved road access; Lot roughly 0.51 acre (approx. dimensions 212 x 105 x 121 x 105)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Icemaker; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 — 12 x 10; Bedroom 3 — 12 x 10; Bedroom 4 — 12 x 10
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Tray and vaulted ceilings; Split bedroom floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-536 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (35.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in FL, #2,943 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Wakulla (rural): math 56% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 73 in FL (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Crawfordville Elementary School (math 65% / reading 65%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 684 students, 42% FRL); Wakulla Middle School (math 55% / reading 52%, grade C+, #205 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 486 students, 41% FRL); Wakulla High School (math 42% / reading 51%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,418 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 468 units permitted in Wakulla County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,667 (35.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-82,231
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-114,026
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32327

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $221,389

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-330	-5% $-433	+0% $-536	+5% $-640	+10% $-743
Rent	-10% $-689	-5% $-613	+0% $-536	+5% $-460	+10% $-383
Rate	-1.0pp $-386	-0.5pp $-460	base $-536	+0.5pp $-614	+1.0pp $-693

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
48 Ruby Ln Crawfordville, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,600	$1.24	15d	1	0.27mi
7 Homestretch Ln Crawfordville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$1,350	$1.45	23d	7	0.39mi
356 Dellwood Rd Crawfordville, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1796	$2,412	$1.34	15d	3	1.00mi
212 Tafflinger Rd Crawfordville, FL	4.0	2.0	1497	$2,000	$1.34	23d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,000 Active 250 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on market $299,000 Active 247 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 246 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 245 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 244 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 242 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 238 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 237 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 236 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 232 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 231 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 230 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 229 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 228 DOM
17. 2025-12-15
    price $299,900
18. 2025-10-14
    listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$11,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,857
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wakulla
• NCES district ID: 1201950
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,740
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2183
• State rank: #18 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crawfordville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crawfordville, FL
• County: Wakulla County · 31,445 people
• City population: 31,445
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,445
• Household income: $84,138
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Wakulla County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,809 people
• By 2030: 33,165 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 33,245 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 32,539 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 29,676 · -9.5%
• By 2100: 22,931 · -30.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wakulla

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.4% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.8pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+40.9 2016: R+40.1 2012: R+28.1 2008: R+24.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.59%
• Current HPI: 302.1883
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $299,900 CATRS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $300,000 CATRS