2634 Sea Oats Cir N · Lakeland, FL 33815

$82,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 172 Days on market

Built 1990 0.25 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Auction Property. Escape the hustle and bustle and embrace the serenity of rural living while still being close to local amenities. Don’t miss this opportunity to make this charming home your own!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 171 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.25 acre (approximately 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: No association listed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; One level; Faces east
• Construction: Metal roof; Other construction materials; Other foundation details; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: other setup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $880 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,933/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.98%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $107,066
• Equity at exit: $73,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.6%
• Equity multiple: 13.45×
• Total profit: $285,889
• Equity at exit: $159,308

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33815

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,194/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $880

Break-even live

Break-even rent $819

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3327 Old Tampa Hwy Unit N/A Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,290	$1.63	14d	1	1.01mi
1806 Dorothy St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2046	$1,695	$0.83	3d	1	1.01mi
2853 Grandbury Grove Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,300	$1.34	23d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,000 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,000 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,000 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,000 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $82,000 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $82,000 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $82,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $82,000 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $82,000 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-03-18
    price $82,000
11. 2025-12-23
    listed $88,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$2,194
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $9,898
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,375
• After-tax cash flow: $8,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,975
• Household income: $37,487
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% German 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.45%
• Current HPI: 424.0956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $82,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Listed $88,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+20.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,194 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.