48 Jeffrey Rd · Leacock, PA 17529

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1994

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Over 55 community in a great Lancaster County location in the heart of Amish country. Brand new furnace installed Jan 2026 and new water heater in August 2023. Refrigerator, Washer, Dryer convey in as is condition. Backyard shed conveys. Ground rent includes water, sewer, trash.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Amish country
• New water heater

Tags

• LANCASTER COUNTY LOCATION
• AMISH COUNTRY
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW WATER HEATER
• BACKYARD SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not in a federal flood zone; Property manager present
• Financial info: Ownership includes ground rent
• HOA & community: Ground rent exists ($720 monthly); Association fees include water, sewer, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway with 2 driveway spaces (2 total garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available; Propane (leased) for heating and bottled gas for cooling
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Senior community (55+); Good condition; Above-grade living area
• Construction: Frame construction with metal siding
• Exterior features: Ramp to main level; 2+ access exits; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Electric oven/range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Propane hot water
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Breakfast area; Dining area; Ceiling fans; Carpeted areas; Corner fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pequea Valley SD (rural): math 27% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #390 of 539 in PA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pequea Valley Intrmd Sch (math 14% / reading 46%, grade F, #380 of 512 statewide, top 74%, 210 students, 59% FRL); Pequea Valley Hs (math 67%, 443 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.60%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $41,442
• Equity at exit: $49,759

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $110,520
• Equity at exit: $70,536

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17529

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $609/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3160 Irishtown Rd Gordonville, PA	3.0	1.0	1846	$1,350	$0.73	13d	1	0.21mi
3212 Mill Ln Gordonville, PA	3.0	1.5	1176	$1,895	$1.61	13d	1	0.21mi
5 S Singer Ave Paradise, PA	3.0	1.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	13d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-23
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $609 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$722/yr (+$60/mo · 118.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$609
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $4,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,085
• After-tax cash flow: $5,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pequea Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4218900
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $58,968
• Composite: 31.56/100
• National rank: #5955
• State rank: #390 of 539 in PA

Livability — Leacock

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gordonville, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,924

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 14% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · German/W. Germanic 54%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.79%
• Current HPI: 253.4308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $609 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.