76158 Crystal Dr · Covington, LA 70435

$129,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 80 Days on market

Built 2003 0.92 ac lot $77/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Front porch
• Rear deck

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FRONT PORCH
• REAR DECK
• WOODED LOT
• OUT BUILDINGS FOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $964 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 3.9% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 365 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $130k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.82%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,433
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -50.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76118 Carroll Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,678 (-0%)	21mo	$250,000	$149	78
413 Penn Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (+3%)	3mo	$255,000	$147	67
524 Jessica Way	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,750 (+4%)	8mo	$240,000	$137	61
607 Jessica Way	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (+5%)	12mo	$246,000	$140	60
337 Penn Mill Lakes Blvd	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,715 (+2%)	15mo	$240,000	$140	54
553 Jessica Way	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,765 (+5%)	19mo	$279,000	$158	53
15010 Lake Ramsey Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-5%)	16mo	$147,000	$92	52
533 Jessica Way	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (+9%)	15mo	$279,900	$153	48
75522 Beverly Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,487 (-12%)	7mo	$250,000	$168	48
306 Penn Mill Lakes Blvd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (+9%)	10mo	$284,900	$156	43
709 Bridle Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,533 (-9%)	11mo	$245,000	$160	43
15552 Lake Ramsey Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,775 (+6%)	20mo	$285,000	$161	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $40,338
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $114,066
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70435

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $558/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $964

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,038	-5% $1,001	+0% $964	+5% $928	+10% $891
Rent	-10% $790	-5% $877	+0% $964	+5% $1,052	+10% $1,139
Rate	-1.0pp $1,030	-0.5pp $997	base $964	+0.5pp $931	+1.0pp $897

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $129,900 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

15. 2026-05-13
    price $129,900 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

16. 2026-05-07
    price $132,500 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

17. 2026-05-07
    price $132,500 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

18. 2026-04-27
    price $135,000 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

19. 2026-04-27
    price $135,000 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

20. 2026-04-06
    price $139,500 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

21. 2026-04-06
    price $139,500 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

22. 2026-04-03
    price $145,000 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

23. 2026-04-03
    price $145,000 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

24. 2026-03-30
    listed $149,000 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

25. 2026-03-30
    listed $149,000 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on almost a full 1 acre beautiful corner lot. Front porch and rear deck. Roof is 4.5 years old. Some recent updates include new flooring in all guest rooms, guest bathroom, kitchen, living room, laundry room, and closets. All ceilings, living room, kitchen, and laundry room have been freshly painted. New water well. A couple of out buildings for storage. Owner/agent

26. 2026-03-18
    soldstatus $57,809
27. 2025-10-31
    soldstatus $57,809

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $558 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $714 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$157/yr (+$13/mo · 28.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$558
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $10,019
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,404
• After-tax cash flow: $9,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 64,351
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 22,475
• Household income: $80,926
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.03%
• Current HPI: 202.0458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+124.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $129,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $129,900 GSREIN
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $132,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $132,500 GSREIN
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $135,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $135,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $139,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $139,500 GSREIN
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $145,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $145,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-30 Listed $149,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-30 Listed $149,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $57,809 Public Records
• 2025-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $57,809 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $558 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.