533 Don Ln · Itasca, TX 76055

$184,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,202 sqft · SingleFamily · 190 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 5,663 sqft lot $154/sqft · 15% below area Est $218k · 15% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21130138 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite The Yosemite Plan from our Freedom Series is a cozy and efficient single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,202 square feet of smartly designed living space. This split-level floorplan places two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom at the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with a central island overlooks the dining area and family room—perfect for meals, gatherings, and quality time. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned off the family room for added privacy and includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The laundry room is also conveniently located on this side of the home for easy access. Known for providing the lowest price and price per square foot, National Homecorp is here to help you get more home for your money!

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-716/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $154,276 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,703
• List price: $184,990
• Delta: -15.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 S Aquilla St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+1%)	1mo	$245,000	$202	93
102 Allie Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-0%)	15mo	$235,000	$196	82
301 S Lamar St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+2%)	5mo	$244,900	$201	75
602 S Aquilla St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,086 (-10%)	4mo	$230,000	$212	75
126 Don Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	6mo	$195,000	$177	70
112 Grayson Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	7mo	$239,900	$208	70
122 Don Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	7mo	$195,000	$177	70
303 S Lamar	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+2%)	19mo	$269,999	$221	64
100 Allie Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-8%)	22mo	$215,000	$194	64
114 Don Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	15mo	$239,900	$174	60
104 S College St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+2%)	9mo	$99,999	$81	59
103 Grayson Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,336 (+11%)	15mo	$245,000	$183	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $96,975
• Equity at exit: $166,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $288,609
• Equity at exit: $359,395

Cash invested: $51,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $176,359

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,248
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 E Marrion St Unit 4 Itasca, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$875	$1.22	43d	1	0.26mi
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	43d	1	0.35mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	11d	1	0.36mi
108 E Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	43d	1	0.43mi
106 W Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	43d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,990 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $184,990 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,990 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,990 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,990 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,990 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $186,990 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $186,990 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $186,990 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $186,990 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $186,990 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $186,990 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $186,990 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $186,990 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $186,990 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $189,990 942-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite

17. 2026-05-14
    price $189,990 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite

18. 2026-04-03
    price $203,990 942-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite

19. 2026-04-03
    price $203,990 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite

20. 2026-03-31
    price $199,990 942-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite

21. 2026-03-31
    price $199,990 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite

22. 2026-03-31
    price $200,990 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite

23. 2025-12-22
    price $189,000 942-char remark

    Show marketing remark (942 chars)

    MLS# 21130138 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite The Yosemite Plan from our Freedom Series is a cozy and efficient single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,202 square feet of smartly designed living space. This split-level floorplan places two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom at the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with a central island overlooks the dining area and family room—perfect for meals, gatherings, and quality time. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned off the family room for added privacy and includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The laundry room is also conveniently located on this side of the home for easy access. Known for providing the lowest price and price per square foot, National Homecorp is here to help you get more home for your money!

24. 2025-12-17
    price $189,000 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite

25. 2025-12-12
    price $2,000 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite

26. 2025-12-10
    listed $198,988 Active 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (942 chars)

    MLS# 21130138 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite The Yosemite Plan from our Freedom Series is a cozy and efficient single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,202 square feet of smartly designed living space. This split-level floorplan places two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom at the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with a central island overlooks the dining area and family room—perfect for meals, gatherings, and quality time. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned off the family room for added privacy and includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The laundry room is also conveniently located on this side of the home for easy access. Known for providing the lowest price and price per square foot, National Homecorp is here to help you get more home for your money!

27. 2025-12-10
    listed $198,988 Active 942-char remark

    Show marketing remark (942 chars)

    MLS# 21130138 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1202 A1 - Yosemite The Yosemite Plan from our Freedom Series is a cozy and efficient single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,202 square feet of smartly designed living space. This split-level floorplan places two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom at the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with a central island overlooks the dining area and family room—perfect for meals, gatherings, and quality time. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned off the family room for added privacy and includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The laundry room is also conveniently located on this side of the home for easy access. Known for providing the lowest price and price per square foot, National Homecorp is here to help you get more home for your money!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,362
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,893
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$934
• After-tax cash flow: $219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern floor plan, well-maintained exterior, and a clean interior. Potential value-adding updates include painting, landscaping, kitchen appliance upgrades, and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $189,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $189,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $203,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $203,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $199,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $199,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $200,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $189,000 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $2,000 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $198,988 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $198,988 NTREIS