2116 SW 39th Dr · Gainesville, FL 32607

$143,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1984 436 sqft lot $216/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price improvement ! Welcome to this cozy two-story 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom townhome in the Mill Run community, ideally located in popular SW Gainesville near Butler Plaza(0.5 miles), Celebration Pointe(1.9), UF Health Shands Hospital( 3 miles), and the University of Florida campus( 2 miles). The first floor features an open-concept kitchen, living, and dining area that flows seamlessly to a screened-in porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This level also includes a spacious laundry room with washer and dryer included. Step outside to enjoy a private fenced backyard, ideal for pets, gardening, or creating your own outdoor retreat. Upstairs, you'll find two generously sized bedrooms and a full bathroom with double sink vanity, providing comfortable living space and functionality. Residents can enjoy community amenities including a pool, and the location offers easy access to public transportation, shopping, dining, and entertainment. This property is classified as a single-family home (not a condo), it may qualify for more flexible financing options, making it an excellent opportunity for first-time homebuyers, students, or investors.

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Open-concept kitchen
• Community amenities

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($826/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $989 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,130 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-22,614
• Equity at exit: $21,322

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-28,975
• Equity at exit: $12,364

Cash invested: $40,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32607

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,072/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$216
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $143,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $109	+0% $69	+5% $28	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $1	+0% $69	+5% $136	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $105	base $69	+0.5pp $32	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,750
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4781 SW 36th Rd Gainesville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1137	$2,340	$2.06	14d	61	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $216 · $2,592/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $143,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $143,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $143,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $143,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $143,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $143,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $143,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $143,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $143,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $143,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $143,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $143,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $143,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $143,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $143,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $143,000 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $143,000 Active 79 DOM
18. 2026-04-30
    price $143,000 1156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1156 chars)

    Price improvement ! Welcome to this cozy two-story 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom townhome in the Mill Run community, ideally located in popular SW Gainesville near Butler Plaza(0.5 miles), Celebration Pointe(1.9), UF Health Shands Hospital( 3 miles), and the University of Florida campus( 2 miles). The first floor features an open-concept kitchen, living, and dining area that flows seamlessly to a screened-in porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This level also includes a spacious laundry room with washer and dryer included. Step outside to enjoy a private fenced backyard, ideal for pets, gardening, or creating your own outdoor retreat. Upstairs, you'll find two generously sized bedrooms and a full bathroom with double sink vanity, providing comfortable living space and functionality. Residents can enjoy community amenities including a pool, and the location offers easy access to public transportation, shopping, dining, and entertainment. This property is classified as a single-family home (not a condo), it may qualify for more flexible financing options, making it an excellent opportunity for first-time homebuyers, students, or investors.

19. 2026-03-12
    listed $149,900 Active 1156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1156 chars)

    Price improvement ! Welcome to this cozy two-story 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom townhome in the Mill Run community, ideally located in popular SW Gainesville near Butler Plaza(0.5 miles), Celebration Pointe(1.9), UF Health Shands Hospital( 3 miles), and the University of Florida campus( 2 miles). The first floor features an open-concept kitchen, living, and dining area that flows seamlessly to a screened-in porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This level also includes a spacious laundry room with washer and dryer included. Step outside to enjoy a private fenced backyard, ideal for pets, gardening, or creating your own outdoor retreat. Upstairs, you'll find two generously sized bedrooms and a full bathroom with double sink vanity, providing comfortable living space and functionality. Residents can enjoy community amenities including a pool, and the location offers easy access to public transportation, shopping, dining, and entertainment. This property is classified as a single-family home (not a condo), it may qualify for more flexible financing options, making it an excellent opportunity for first-time homebuyers, students, or investors.

20. 2021-06-02
    soldstatus $120,000
21. 2021-06-01
    soldstatus $120,000 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Stunning fully updated 2 bedroom 1.5 bath unit townhouse in Mill Run. Large open living and dinning room, Two spacious bedroom on second floor. The bus stop right in front of the subdivisions. 10 minutes to UF, Shands, VA hospital or a short bike to Butler shopping and restaurants. A Must See Unit! 3-4 Units.

22. 2021-05-14
    listed $125,000 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Stunning fully updated 2 bedroom 1.5 bath unit townhouse in Mill Run. Large open living and dinning room, Two spacious bedroom on second floor. The bus stop right in front of the subdivisions. 10 minutes to UF, Shands, VA hospital or a short bike to Butler shopping and restaurants. A Must See Unit! 3-4 Units.

23. 2019-10-25
    soldstatus $83,500
24. 2019-10-18
    soldstatus $83,500
25. 2019-08-21
    listed $85,000
26. 2019-07-23
    soldstatus $45,500
27. 2017-05-19
    historical
28. 2016-11-16
    listed $75,000
29. 2014-07-31
    historical
30. 2014-07-12
    listed $63,000
31. 2013-07-05
    soldstatus $105,000
32. 2013-07-01
    soldstatus $35,000
33. 2013-05-22
    listed $44,750
34. 1984-09-01
    soldstatus $83,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,072 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,072 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$3,072
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − HOA: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable loss: −$1,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$317
• After-tax cash flow: $1,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,720
• Household income: $45,987
• Rent vs Own: 66.0% rent · 34.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3418.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.86%
• Current HPI: 270.183
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.60%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+71.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $143,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-01 Sold (MLS) $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-14 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records
• 2019-10-18 Sold (MLS) $83,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-21 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records
• 2017-05-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-16 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-12 Listed $63,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-01 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-22 Listed $44,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,072 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.