9 San Felipe · Lakewood Park, FL 34951

$25,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 193 Days on market

Built 1985 ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 2-bedroom 2-bath home located in the 55+Spanish Lakes community. This home sits on a quiet cul-de-sac and backs up to a wooded area for added privacy. The house has laminated floors and carpet. This home has built-in shelves in the dining room for added storage. Laundry is inside the homeâ ”this home also has a shed and a peaceful screened-in patio perfect for enjoying morning coffee or evening cocktails. The exterior was painted in 2025. Roof 2019 and A/C is 2018. Lawn care, trash removal, and free golf are included in the lot rent. 2 pools, tennis, pickleball, bocceball, and shuffleboard. clubhouse and much more

Key facts

• Tennis
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Screened-in patio

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• WOODED AREA
• BUILT-IN SHELVES
• SCREENED-IN PATIO
• 2 POOLS
• TENNIS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball court(s), shuffleboard court, bocce ball, billiard room, game room, community room, library, dog park, workshop area, golf course, and more; Association fees include grounds maintenance, trash, and golf; Senior community; Pets allowed (pet restrictions possible)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered carport; Has carport
• Security: Security patrol
• Utilities: Three-phase electric; Public sewer; Cable available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Resale condition; North-facing
• Construction: Modular construction
• Exterior features: Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in features; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 81.1% vs local median 5.7% in Lakewood Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (48%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 81.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 267.03%
• DSCR: 12.88
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $53,200
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Calle De Lagos	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+1%)	5mo	$55,000	$39	61
38 Montoya	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+1%)	22mo	$19,995	$14	60
45 Ecuador Way	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,400 (0%)	20mo	$42,000	$30	54
3 Jose Martin	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+7%)	9mo	$59,000	$39	54
65 Las Casitas Ct	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,316 (-6%)	15mo	$50,000	$38	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.60×
• Total profit: $95,191
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 31.11×
• Total profit: $210,773
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $1,558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6906 Ocala Ave Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,955	$1.66	14d	1	0.39mi
5642 Sunberry Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,950	$1.42	23d	1	0.48mi
5510 Shannon Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,350	$1.47	14d	1	0.59mi
7403 Winter Garden Pkwy Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,200	$1.60	21d	1	0.65mi
7500 Pensacola Rd Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$2,150	$1.91	14d	1	0.78mi
7704 Pacific Ave Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1719	$2,500	$1.45	14d	1	0.89mi
7503 Paso Robles Blvd Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,000	$1.59	23d	1	0.97mi
2450 8th Ave SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$2,100	$1.51	21d	1	1.10mi
6602 Palomar Pkwy Unit A Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	23d	1	1.11mi
5234 Oakland Lake Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,300	$1.58	14d	1	1.14mi
5010 Killarney Ave Unit A Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	1720	$1,500	$0.87	23d	1	1.19mi
985 23rd Pl SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,200	$1.87	21d	1	1.23mi
2320 Water Oaks Ln Unit 111 Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1811	$3,500	$1.93	21d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $25,000 Pending 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $25,000 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $25,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $25,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $25,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $25,000 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-05-24
    status Active
13. 2026-05-20
    status Pending
14. 2026-05-15
    price $25,000
15. 2026-05-15
    status Active
16. 2026-04-22
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-21
    historical
18. 2026-04-03
    price $33,000
19. 2026-02-23
    price $38,000
20. 2025-11-04
    listed $48,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $19,452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,668
• After-tax cash flow: $14,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Park

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #15407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-47.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $25,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $33,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $38,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $48,000 Beaches MLS