222 Wright Hollow Rd · Monticello, KY 42633

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2006 8.10 ac lot $131/sqft · 7% below area Est $172k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for acreage without giving up convenience? This 8.10-acre property offers room to roam while still being just minutes from everything you need. The home is has been well maintained with updates including bathrooms, water heater, HVAC, and roof. Spend your weekends at Conley Bottom Resort just 7 miles away, and enjoy quick access to shopping, dining, and essentials in Monticello only 4-5 miles away. A perfect mix of country living and modern convenience—priced to sell!.

Key facts

• Hvac
• Water heater
• 8.10-acre property

Tags

• 8.10-ACRE PROPERTY
• QUICK ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• QUICK ACCESS TO DINING
• WELL MAINTAINED UPDATES
• HVAC
• WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-548/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#265 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wayne County (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #142 of 165 in KY (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Monticello Elementary School (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 630 students, 79% FRL); Wayne County Middle School (math 18% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 679 students, 75% FRL); Wayne County High School (math 24% / reading 40%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 940 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 57% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $160k implies a 255% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,971 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,237
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -7.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Wright Hollow Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	0mo	$155,000	$127	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-28,904
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-29,261
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42633

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $396/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $151,834

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $0	+0% $-46	+5% $-91	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-90	+0% $-46	+5% $-1	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-5	base $-46	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $159,900 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-05-12
   price $159,900 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   Looking for acreage without giving up convenience? This 8.10-acre property offers room to roam while still being just minutes from everything you need. The home is has been well maintained with updates including bathrooms, water heater, HVAC, and roof. Spend your weekends at Conley Bottom Resort just 7 miles away, and enjoy quick access to shopping, dining, and essentials in Monticello only 4-5 miles away. A perfect mix of country living and modern convenience—priced to sell!.

6. 2026-04-19
   price $164,900 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   Looking for acreage without giving up convenience? This 8.10-acre property offers room to roam while still being just minutes from everything you need. The home is has been well maintained with updates including bathrooms, water heater, HVAC, and roof. Spend your weekends at Conley Bottom Resort just 7 miles away, and enjoy quick access to shopping, dining, and essentials in Monticello only 4-5 miles away. A perfect mix of country living and modern convenience—priced to sell!.

7. 2026-04-09
   listed $168,500 Active 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   Looking for acreage without giving up convenience? This 8.10-acre property offers room to roam while still being just minutes from everything you need. The home is has been well maintained with updates including bathrooms, water heater, HVAC, and roof. Spend your weekends at Conley Bottom Resort just 7 miles away, and enjoy quick access to shopping, dining, and essentials in Monticello only 4-5 miles away. A perfect mix of country living and modern convenience—priced to sell!.

8. 2017-05-23
   soldstatus $45,000 111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (111 chars)

   3 bedroom,2 bath mobile home located on 8.10 acres m/l. Hvac, carpet and vinyl. Mobile home has been remodeled.

9. 2017-01-03
   listed $54,900 111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (111 chars)

   3 bedroom,2 bath mobile home located on 8.10 acres m/l. Hvac, carpet and vinyl. Mobile home has been remodeled.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$980/yr (+$82/mo · 247.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$396
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,085
• − Management: −$1,085
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$820
• After-tax cash flow: $272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County
• NCES district ID: 2105790
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $30,391
• Composite: 21.38/100
• National rank: #8358
• State rank: #142 of 165 in KY

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #12963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,609

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,477 people
• By 2030: 18,776 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 17,199 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 15,602 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 11,883 · -39.0%
• By 2100: 8,300 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.5% · R 82.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+62.0 2016: R+61.8 2012: R+47.6 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.14%
• Current HPI: 227.5936
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+191.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $159,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $164,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $168,500 ImagineMLS
• 2017-05-23 Sold (MLS) $45,000 ImagineMLS
• 2017-01-03 Listed $54,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $396 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.