49 Haines St · Forked River, NJ 08734

$419,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,403 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1973 0.38 ac lot Est $455k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST REDUCED!!! PRISTINE, SPACIOUS 3 BEDROOM RANCH ON AN OVERSIZED 100X 162 LOT. ENJOY THE PARK LIKE SETTINGS OF THE BACK YARD.

Key facts

• Stone countertops
• Updated kitchen
• Center island

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRAY SHAKER CABINETRY
• STONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTER ISLAND
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Timberline roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Includes washer, dryer, microwave, stove and refrigerator; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $420k).
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $238k; list at $420k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $419,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.73%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $454,572
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
560 Oakhollow Ln	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,446 (+3%)	12mo	$430,000	$297	71
446 Steuben Ave	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,496 (+7%)	10mo	$485,000	$324	61
503 Buttonwood Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,467 (+5%)	1mo	$465,000	$317	53
412 Steuben Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+6%)	10mo	$625,000	$421	51
438 Carr St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+7%)	17mo	$385,000	$257	50
20 Bayberry Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+8%)	6mo	$485,000	$320	49
28 Bayberry Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+12%)	5mo	$510,000	$326	42
732 Oak Rd	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,317 (-6%)	22mo	$440,000	$334	37
16 Bayberry Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,203 (-14%)	10mo	$395,000	$328	36
375 Constitution Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,538 (+10%)	22mo	$450,000	$293	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $80,107
• Equity at exit: $62,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $260,685
• Equity at exit: $36,305

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08734

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,535 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,372
• Net cashflow: $2,325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,592

Max offer price $419,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 Sinclair Ave Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	1.0	1352	$3,300	$2.44	20d	1	1.28mi
209 Sinclair Ave Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	1.0	1352	$3,000	$2.22	43d	1	1.28mi
406 Lawrence Dr Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1836	$16,000	$8.71	1d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $419,900 Active
3. 2025-03-01
   historical $3,000
4. 2025-02-05
   listed $3,000
5. 2021-05-10
   soldstatus $238,500
6. 2017-09-28
   historical
7. 2017-08-04
   listed $259,900 Active
8. 2005-08-30
   soldstatus $276,000
9. 2005-08-24
   soldstatus $276,000 127-char remark

   Show marketing remark (127 chars)

   JUST REDUCED!!! PRISTINE, SPACIOUS 3 BEDROOM RANCH ON AN OVERSIZED 100X 162 LOT. ENJOY THE PARK LIKE SETTINGS OF THE BACK YARD.

10. 2005-05-25
    listed $279,000 127-char remark

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    JUST REDUCED!!! PRISTINE, SPACIOUS 3 BEDROOM RANCH ON AN OVERSIZED 100X 162 LOT. ENJOY THE PARK LIKE SETTINGS OF THE BACK YARD.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,525 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,990 · $666/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,465/yr (+$205/mo · 44.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$5,525
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,273
• − Management: −$6,273
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable income: $22,510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,403
• After-tax cash flow: $22,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,028

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.83%
• Current HPI: 368.8557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+50.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $419,900 MOMLS
• 2025-03-01 Rental Removed $3,000 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-05 Listed for Rent $3,000 APPFOLIO
• 2021-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $238,500 Public Records
• 2017-09-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-08-04 Listed $259,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $276,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-24 Sold (MLS) $276,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-05-25 Listed $279,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,525 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.