Robie Modern Plan · Balm, FL 33598

$381,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · SingleFamily · 237 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This all concrete block constructed, two-story plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living and dining area, and an outdoor patio. Upstairs, the oversized owner's suite can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as ensuite bathroom with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052.

Key facts

• Large walk-in closet
• Outdoor patio
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DOWNSTAIRS
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• OVERSIZED OWNER'S SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $381,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $392,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $382k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 962 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 120d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($336k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $291,397 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,490
• List price: $381,990
• Delta: -2.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13606 New Jade Ave	0.38mi	5/3.0	2,490 (+2%)	0mo	$393,990	$158	79
13610 New Jade Ave	0.38mi	5/3.0	2,490 (+2%)	0mo	$409,990	$165	79
15017 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.24mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	0mo	$418,798	$161	78
15102 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.35mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	5mo	$409,740	$157	69
13607 New Jade Ave	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,336 (-4%)	1mo	$371,760	$159	68
15039 Coltman Hill Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,305 (-6%)	4mo	$350,000	$152	60
13405 New Jade Ave	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,576 (+5%)	5mo	$402,630	$156	58
14959 Topaz Blue St	0.62mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,174 (-11%)	12mo	$369,900	$170	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-87,397
• Equity at exit: $70,049

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-133,091
• Equity at exit: $54,071

Cash invested: $109,897 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 41 active · 29 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.6 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $378,375 ($169/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 962
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,914 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,058
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$491 /mo · $5,887/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,433

Max offer price $333,108

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-275	+0% $-410	+5% $-546	+10% $-682
Rent	-10% $-641	-5% $-525	+0% $-410	+5% $-295	+10% $-180
Rate	-1.0pp $-213	-0.5pp $-311	base $-410	+0.5pp $-512	+1.0pp $-616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,123
• Closing costs: $11,775
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15007 Coltman Hill Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,550	$1.33	120d	1	0.33mi
13191 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	84d	1	0.89mi
13181 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	120d	1	0.90mi
13095 Calcite Blue Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,300	$1.19	113d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $381,990 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $381,990 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $381,990 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $381,990 Active 234 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $381,990 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $381,990 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $381,990 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $381,990 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $381,990 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $381,990 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $381,990 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $381,990 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $381,990 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $381,990 Active 224 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $381,990 Active 218 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $381,990 Active 217 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $381,990 Active 216 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $381,990 Active 213 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $381,990 Active 212 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $381,990 Active 211 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $381,990 Active 210 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $381,990 Active 209 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $381,990 Active 208 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $381,990 Active 207 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $381,990 Active 206 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $381,990 Active 205 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $381,990 Active 204 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $381,990 Active 202 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $381,990 Active 201 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $381,990 Active 200 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $381,990 Active 199 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $381,990 Active 198 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $381,990 Active 197 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $381,990 Active 196 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $381,990 Active 195 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $382,000 Active 194 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $382,000 Active 193 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $382,000 Active 192 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $382,000 Active 191 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $382,000 Active 190 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    price $382,000 Active 188 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $381,990 Active 188 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $381,990 Active 187 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $381,990 Active 186 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $381,990 Active 185 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $381,990 Active 182 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $381,990 Active 180 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $381,990 Active 179 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $381,990 Active 177 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $381,990 Active 175 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,986
• − Property taxes: −$5,887
• − Insurance: −$1,962
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,797
• − Management: −$2,797
• − Depreciation: −$11,418
• Taxable loss: −$11,880
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,851
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This all-concrete block constructed home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a high ROI with updates focusing on exterior and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wimauma Elementary School F FL #1,882/2,144 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Shields Middle School F FL #486/571 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Lennard High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $381,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $379,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Listed $377,990 Zillow