1004 Lakeview Dr · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$180,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,948 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 1963 Fair condition 0.39 ac lot $92/sqft · 42% below area Est $309k · 42% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity or multi-generational living in the City of Lynchburg! This duplex offers lake access and a highly convenient location just minutes from Liberty University and the shopping, dining, and amenities along Wards Road. The property features a total of 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms across two units, each with its own kitchen and living room. One unit includes a den that can serve as a third bedroom, home office, or bonus space. Outside, you'll find two paved driveways for off-street parking and a fenced rear yard, all tucked away in a quiet cul-de-sac setting. With solid bones and great potential, this property is ready for your vision and updates. A little TLC will

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Two paved driveways
• Convenient location

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• FENCED REAR YARD
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• TWO PAVED DRIVEWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.39 acres; Zoned R1
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with tennis courts; Association fee $150 annually (about $12.50/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Paved off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Above grade finished area: 1,948
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Sump pump in basement; Has basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 475 students, 90% FRL); Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 61% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.54%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,397
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -41.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 Middle St	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,857 (-5%)	13mo	$330,000	$178	73
607 Middle St	0.15mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,720 (-12%)	9mo	$189,250	$110	59
134 Yorkshire Cir	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,157 (+11%)	4mo	$330,000	$153	58
200 Windsor Rd	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,041 (+5%)	8mo	$325,000	$159	55
201 Windsor Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,070 (+6%)	10mo	$290,000	$140	54
423 Woodland Cir Cir	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,693 (-13%)	4mo	$255,000	$151	49
105 Chesterfield Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,733 (-11%)	12mo	$330,000	$190	46
515 Capstone Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,106 (+8%)	5mo	$389,900	$185	40
223 Windsor Rd	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,158 (+11%)	14mo	$348,000	$161	38
78 Village Rd	0.69mi	4/1.5	1,698 (-13%)	10mo	$262,500	$155	36
110 Buckingham Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (-11%)	11mo	$330,000	$190	36
1004 Wexford Pl	0.56mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,668 (-14%)	8mo	$249,900	$150	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $950
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $53,351
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,591

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $525	-5% $463	+0% $401	+5% $339	+10% $276
Rent	-10% $235	-5% $318	+0% $401	+5% $484	+10% $567
Rate	-1.0pp $491	-0.5pp $447	base $401	+0.5pp $354	+1.0pp $307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Bentley Grove Way Lynchburg, VA	5.0	3.0	2536	$3,495	$1.38	21d	1	0.47mi
503 Barrington Way Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.5	1545	$1,795	$1.16	13d	1	0.60mi
556 Leesville Rd #306 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1520	$2,100	$1.38	44d	1	0.65mi
556 Leesville Rd Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,695	$1.06	13d	1	0.65mi
124 Palmer Dr Lynchburg, VA	5.0	3.0	1250	$2,600	$2.08	21d	1	0.79mi
318 Meridian St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,995	$1.25	44d	1	0.80mi
304 Hunterdale Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,400	$1.14	13d	1	0.80mi
419 Rotunda St #2001 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,875	$1.30	44d	1	0.82mi
419 Rotunda St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,875	$1.34	21d	1	0.82mi
211 Meridian St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1815	$2,300	$1.27	13d	1	0.82mi
119 Cornerstone St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,595	$1.18	21d	1	0.89mi
203 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1143	$1,585	$1.39	13d	20	0.94mi
110 Aaron Pl #605 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,795	$1.18	13d	1	1.03mi
110 Aaron Pl #611 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1490	$1,925	$1.29	21d	1	1.03mi
7222 Richland Dr Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	2164	$1,950	$0.90	44d	1	1.05mi
209 Old Graves Mill Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1313	$1,430	$1.09	13d	7	1.06mi
151 Kitty Hawk Sq Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,450	$0.81	21d	1	1.15mi
240 Beverly Hills Cir Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1402	$1,756	$1.25	21d	10	1.20mi
1816 Wards Ferry Rd Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.5	1432	$825	$0.58	44d	1	1.34mi
1600 Wards Ferry Rd #1207 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	4.5	1728	$2,600	$1.50	44d	1	1.37mi
1600 Wards Ferry Rd #907 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.5	1782	$1,895	$1.06	44d	1	1.37mi
501 Bent Oak Ct Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,900	$1.52	44d	1	1.39mi
120 Clubhouse Dr Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$1,325	$1.20	13d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 884-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $180,000 Active 884-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
• − Management: −$2,015
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $2,077
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$499
• After-tax cash flow: $4,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property presents a moderate rehab opportunity with significant exterior and interior repairs needed. Improvements in landscaping and exterior paint, along with flooring and interior paint, would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior paint — Peeling paint on the exterior
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation
• Major Flooring — Worn hardwood flooring
• Major Interior paint — Peeling paint on interior walls

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior paint — Improves curb appeal and overall appearance
• Both Flooring replacement — Enhances interior aesthetics and value
• Both Interior paint — Refreshes the interior and improves curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior paint · Peeling paint on the exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Overgrown vegetation	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn hardwood flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior paint · Peeling paint on interior walls	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior paint — Improves curb appeal and overall appearance ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Refreshes the interior and improves curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $180,000 LMLS