230- Lake Shore North O4 Unit D · Milford, PA 07827

$129,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Townhouse · 96 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition 0.40 ac lot $139/sqft · 58% below area $273/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

IS THIS THE BEST PRICED 2 BEDROOM END-UNIT IN HPCC??? AFFORDABLE LIVING AT IT'S FINEST!!! UPDATED WATERFRONT IMMACULATE CONDO! FEATURING: A SPACIOUS OPEN & AIRY FLOOR-PLAN, NEW NEUTRAL CARPETING & FRESHLY PAINTED NEUTRAL INTERIOR, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS & 1 BATH WITH DOUBLE SINKS, NEARLY 1000 SQ FT, LARGE COVERED DECK OVERLOOKING THE WATER, ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED & PLENTIFUL PARKING ROUND OUT THIS FANTASTICALLY PRICED UNIT! LOW TAXES & LOW HOA!!! QUICK CLOSING POSSIBLE!

Key facts

• Waterfront condo
• Large covered deck
• Plentiful parking

Tags

• WATERFRONT CONDO
• LARGE COVERED DECK
• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• PLENTIFUL PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.8% in Milford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#255 in PA, #2,230 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D+, commute F.
• Montague Township School District (rural): math 40% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #400 of 612 in NJ (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $118,299 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,990
• List price: $129,999
• Delta: -58.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-12,125
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,489
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07827

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$273
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $129,999

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $273 · $3,276/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,999 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,999 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,999 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,999 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,999 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,999 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,999 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,999 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,999 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,999 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,999 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,999 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,999 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    price $139,999 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    IS THIS THE BEST PRICED 2 BEDROOM END-UNIT IN HPCC??? AFFORDABLE LIVING AT IT'S FINEST!!! UPDATED WATERFRONT IMMACULATE CONDO! FEATURING: A SPACIOUS OPEN & AIRY FLOOR-PLAN, NEW NEUTRAL CARPETING & FRESHLY PAINTED NEUTRAL INTERIOR, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS & 1 BATH WITH DOUBLE SINKS, NEARLY 1000 SQ FT, LARGE COVERED DECK OVERLOOKING THE WATER, ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED & PLENTIFUL PARKING ROUND OUT THIS FANTASTICALLY PRICED UNIT! LOW TAXES & LOW HOA!!! QUICK CLOSING POSSIBLE!

15. 2026-03-14
    listed $149,999 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    IS THIS THE BEST PRICED 2 BEDROOM END-UNIT IN HPCC??? AFFORDABLE LIVING AT IT'S FINEST!!! UPDATED WATERFRONT IMMACULATE CONDO! FEATURING: A SPACIOUS OPEN & AIRY FLOOR-PLAN, NEW NEUTRAL CARPETING & FRESHLY PAINTED NEUTRAL INTERIOR, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS & 1 BATH WITH DOUBLE SINKS, NEARLY 1000 SQ FT, LARGE COVERED DECK OVERLOOKING THE WATER, ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED & PLENTIFUL PARKING ROUND OUT THIS FANTASTICALLY PRICED UNIT! LOW TAXES & LOW HOA!!! QUICK CLOSING POSSIBLE!

16. 2024-06-04
    soldstatus $125,000 Sold
17. 2024-04-12
    status Under Contract
18. 2023-12-02
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − HOA: −$3,276
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$58
• After-tax cash flow: $1,706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This waterfront condo is in good condition with some cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior. Painting the exterior and interior, and replacing the carpet can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance and dated design.
• Moderate Kitchen countertops — Worn appearance and dated design.
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance and could benefit from repainting.
• Minor Carpet — Some areas show signs of wear, but not severe enough to warrant replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Rental Re-carpeting or replacing carpet — Fresh carpet can make the space more inviting and reduce maintenance costs.
• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more modern and appealing.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improved landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance and dated design.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen countertops · Worn appearance and dated design.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance and could benefit from repainting.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Carpet · Some areas show signs of wear, but not severe enough to warrant replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$9,500–48,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Re-carpeting or replacing carpet — Fresh carpet can make the space more inviting and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more modern and appealing. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improved landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montague Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3410530
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,366
• Composite: 43.98/100
• National rank: #6267
• State rank: #400 of 612 in NJ

Livability — Milford

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #2230

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,799
• Population (ZIP): 4,111

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,413 people
• By 2030: 127,324 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 113,987 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 100,391 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 78,063 · -41.5%
• By 2100: 62,346 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.6% · R 61.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+30.3 2012: R+22.4 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.89%
• Current HPI: 290.6237
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $139,999 GSMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $149,999 GSMLS
• 2024-06-04 Sold (MLS) $125,000 GSMLS
• 2024-04-12 Pending — GSMLS
• 2023-12-02 Listed $145,000 GSMLS