1853 W 27th St · Jacksonville, FL 32209

$199,850

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 314 Days on market

Built 1958 10,018 sqft lot Est $171k · 17% over ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The house has been remodeled from top to bottom. Brand new roof, brand new floor joist, brand new flooring, brand new central air and heat, paint, plumbing and electrical.

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to schools
• 1-year home warranty

Tags

• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• CLOSE TO PUBLIC TRANSIT
• 1-YEAR HOME WARRANTY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: 150 amp electrical service; Public sewer; Sewer available; Water available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Faces west
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; City street frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Electric range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($657/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grasp Academy (math 18% / reading 14%, grade F, #2,130 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 271 students, 52% FRL); Matthew W. Gilbert Middle School (math 26% / reading 17%, grade F, #553 of 571 statewide, top 97%, 688 students, 86% FRL); William M. Raines High School (math 14% / reading 13%, grade F, #616 of 667 statewide, top 92%, 1,217 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 49% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-28 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,693/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 2921% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,251 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,130
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1731 W 28th St	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-3%)	6mo	$220,000	$145	78
1860 W 31st St	0.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,401 (-11%)	3mo	$139,000	$99	67
1648 W 22nd St	0.34mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-3%)	9mo	$215,000	$141	66
1419 W 24th St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (+0%)	3mo	$53,200	$34	65
1471 Mitchell St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (-5%)	8mo	$115,000	$77	55
1585 W 31st St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-9%)	10mo	$135,000	$95	54
1918 Spring Drive Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,427 (-9%)	10mo	$150,000	$105	41
5331 Spring Grove Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,722 (+10%)	11mo	$255,000	$148	39
1342 Golfair Blvd	0.71mi	5/2.0	1,772 (+13%)	8mo	$195,000	$110	38
1337 W 22nd St W	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,357 (-14%)	3mo	$198,000	$146	37
5330 Cord Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,372 (-13%)	12mo	$149,900	$109	34
1604 W 13th St	0.74mi	5/3.0	1,341 (-15%)	8mo	$136,687	$102	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,933
• Equity at exit: $29,798

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,611
• Equity at exit: $17,279

Cash invested: $55,958 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32209

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,812/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,623

Max offer price $199,850

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $111	+0% $55	+5% $-2	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-12	+0% $55	+5% $122	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $106	base $55	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,962
• Closing costs: $5,996
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1490 W 33rd St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.5	1150	$1,150	$1.00	25d	1	0.53mi
1511 W 15th St Jacksonville, FL	5.0	3.0	1720	$2,100	$1.22	25d	1	0.71mi
1288 W 28th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.5	1449	$1,267	$0.87	16d	1	0.74mi
2415 N Canal St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,450	$0.92	0d	1	0.80mi
1740 W 9th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1148	$1,285	$1.12	22d	1	0.89mi
2069 Talladega Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,298	$1.13	6d	1	0.91mi
1149 W 28th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1344	$1,302	$0.97	25d	1	0.93mi
1029 W 25th St Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	5.0	2.0	1410	$2,200	$1.56	25d	1	1.09mi
1025 W 25th St Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	5.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	25d	1	1.10mi
3126 Martha St Jacksonville, FL	6.0	2.0	1350	$2,550	$1.89	16d	1	1.11mi
5568 Verbena Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1880	$1,575	$0.84	25d	1	1.20mi
5247 Cleveland Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,775	$0.96	16d	1	1.23mi
1422 Stafford St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1368	$1,900	$1.39	0d	1	1.24mi
2313 Janette St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1148	$1,349	$1.18	18d	1	1.27mi
5816 Paris Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,599	$0.94	25d	1	1.27mi
1640 W 4th St Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1119	$1,675	$1.50	22d	1	1.32mi
1995 W 4th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.5	1213	$1,375	$1.13	25d	1	1.34mi
1781 W 3rd St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1632	$650	$0.40	25d	1	1.34mi
5805 Christobel Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1986	$1,800	$0.91	9d	1	1.38mi
1355 Grothe St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	1312	$1,350	$1.03	19d	1	1.40mi
2727 W 45th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	2104	$1,550	$0.74	16d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,850 Active 314 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,850 Active 311 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,850 Active 310 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,850 Active 309 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,850 Active 308 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,850 Active 302 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,850 Active 301 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,850 Active 300 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,850 Active 296 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,850 Active 295 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,850 Active 294 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,850 Active 293 DOM
13. 2025-09-18
    price $199,850
14. 2025-08-11
    listed $220,000 Active
15. 2024-12-14
    historical 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    The house has been remodeled from top to bottom. Brand new roof, brand new floor joist, brand new flooring, brand new central air and heat, paint, plumbing and electrical.

16. 2024-08-25
    price $210,001 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    The house has been remodeled from top to bottom. Brand new roof, brand new floor joist, brand new flooring, brand new central air and heat, paint, plumbing and electrical.

17. 2024-07-14
    price $225,001 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    The house has been remodeled from top to bottom. Brand new roof, brand new floor joist, brand new flooring, brand new central air and heat, paint, plumbing and electrical.

18. 2024-05-01
    listed $250,001 Active 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    The house has been remodeled from top to bottom. Brand new roof, brand new floor joist, brand new flooring, brand new central air and heat, paint, plumbing and electrical.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,195
• − Property taxes: −$1,812
• − Insurance: −$999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − Depreciation: −$5,814
• Taxable loss: −$2,759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$662
• After-tax cash flow: $1,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,657
• Household income: $30,514
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.92%
• Current HPI: 189.5977
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $199,850 realMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $220,000 realMLS
• 2024-12-14 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-08-25 Price Changed $210,001 realMLS
• 2024-07-14 Price Changed $225,001 realMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listed $250,001 realMLS

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,812 · +19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.