10029 Whitecap Dr NE · Olympia, WA 98502

$359,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1979 7,914 sqft lot Est $376k · at est. $122/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the Puget Sound lifestyle in Carlyon Beach, where coastal living meets modern comfort. Just three blocks from beach access, a kayak and boat launch, a marina, and a private park, this home offers endless outdoor adventure. Inside, enjoy upgrades like a newer roof, laminate plank flooring, energy-efficient windows, and a ductless heating and AC system installed in 2020. The home also features updated appliances, LED lighting, a relaxing deck to enjoy the morning sunrise. Enjoy the peek a boo view of the sound view from the dining room, this airy 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is move-in ready. Quiet evenings and a friendly walking neighborhood make this a perfect year-round retreat. Don&r

Key facts

• 7,914 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1979

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RL2/1; Lot features: Lot 1; approximate dimensions 94' x 63' x 13' x 16' x 17' x 80'
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, State Bond, VA Loan
• HOA & community: Carlyon Beach Home Owner Association; HOA dues $122 per month (includes common area maintenance and water); Community features: boat launch, CCRs, club house, park, playground

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Driveway; 1 covered space; 1 uncovered parking space
• Utilities: Electric power; PSE electric service; Community water (Carlyon Beach); Septic sewer; Xfinity cable and internet; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Manufactured on land; One story; Main level entry; East-facing
• Construction: Metal/vinyl exterior; Composition (shingle) roof; Built circa 2010 (effective year); Pillar/post/pier foundation with tie-downs; Hillcrest make, model 52/24
• Exterior features: Deck; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Corner lot; Paved lot; Community waterfront / private beach access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Double oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level); Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level); 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Outside access to water heater; View
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-613 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (30.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (38.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Griffin School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #28 of 291 in WA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Griffin School (577 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $265k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $221,681 (38.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.29%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $375,648
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10140 Windward Dr NW	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,247 (-0%)	15mo	$523,900	$420	79
9704 Whitecap Dr NW	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (+5%)	10mo	$395,000	$301	64
2624 Crestridge Dr NW	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (+2%)	20mo	$353,500	$276	57
2441 Crestridge Dr NW	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-8%)	8mo	$329,000	$286	56
1840 Island Dr NW	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	19mo	$351,500	$305	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $157,311
• Equity at exit: $324,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $494,582
• Equity at exit: $699,207

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,454/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$122
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-613

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,992

Max offer price $251,686

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-409	-5% $-511	+0% $-613	+5% $-714	+10% $-816
Rent	-10% $-788	-5% $-700	+0% $-613	+5% $-525	+10% $-437
Rate	-1.0pp $-431	-0.5pp $-521	base $-613	+0.5pp $-706	+1.0pp $-801

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9621 Steamboat Island Rd NW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1032	$2,950	$2.86	45d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $122 · $1,464/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $359,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $359,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $364,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $364,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $364,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $364,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $364,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $364,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $364,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $364,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $364,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $364,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $364,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $364,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $364,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $364,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    price $364,000
19. 2026-04-29
    listed $369,000 Active
20. 2021-05-21
    soldstatus $265,000
21. 1991-04-03
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,454 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,527 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,073/yr (+$89/mo · 43.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$2,454
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − HOA: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$14,002
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,361
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin School District
• NCES district ID: 5303330
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,706
• Composite: 58.36/100
• National rank: #2079
• State rank: #28 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+628.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $364,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $369,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 1991-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,454 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.