48 Longwood Dr · Bracey, VA 23919

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2003 0.49 ac lot $191/sqft · 7% below area Est $275k · 7% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Off-frame modular home perfectly situated on the golf course in a desirable subdivision offering Lake Gaston access! Enjoy peaceful views from the beautiful screened-in porch overlooking the fairway, ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. This community is packed with amenities including a private beach, boat ramp, swimming pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, pickleball courts, volleyball area, and pavilion—everything you need for full-time living or a weekend getaway. The home also features an open floor plan with the eat-in kitchen opening into the living room area. Three spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths make this an ideal floor plan. There's a large storage building, providing plenty of space for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or a retreat near the lake, this property offers the best of both worlds—golf course living with lake lifestyle access.

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Clubhouse
• Private beach

Tags

• LAKE GASTON ACCESS
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• PRIVATE BEACH
• BOAT RAMP
• SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($248/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lacrosse Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 360 students, 89% FRL); Park View Middle (math 54% / reading 75%); Park View High (math 57% / reading 77%) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $255k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,170 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,000
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -7.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
190 Blackridge Rd	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-1%)	2mo	$245,000	$186	84
11 Longwood Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,361 (+2%)	15mo	$299,000	$220	78
116 Sycamore Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-3%)	10mo	$199,500	$155	72
285 Dogwood Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+5%)	8mo	$315,000	$225	70
233 Chestnut Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,333 (+0%)	7mo	$220,000	$165	68
56 Hawthorne Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	11mo	$185,000	$138	64
25 Cedar Ct	0.60mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,344 (+1%)	12mo	$630,000	$469	52
285 Alexander Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,358 (+2%)	14mo	$299,900	$221	50
432 Beechwood Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+9%)	12mo	$196,250	$135	50
47 Myrtle Pl	0.60mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,402 (+5%)	13mo	$134,000	$96	45
165 Locust Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+14%)	4mo	$240,000	$159	42
142 Almond Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-12%)	15mo	$160,000	$136	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $11,273
• Equity at exit: $92,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $65,622
• Equity at exit: $127,636

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $616/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $93	+0% $21	+5% $-52	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-58	+0% $21	+5% $99	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $86	base $21	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-09
   price $255,000 925-char remark

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   Off-frame modular home perfectly situated on the golf course in a desirable subdivision offering Lake Gaston access! Enjoy peaceful views from the beautiful screened-in porch overlooking the fairway, ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. This community is packed with amenities including a private beach, boat ramp, swimming pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, pickleball courts, volleyball area, and pavilion—everything you need for full-time living or a weekend getaway. The home also features an open floor plan with the eat-in kitchen opening into the living room area. Three spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths make this an ideal floor plan. There's a large storage building, providing plenty of space for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or a retreat near the lake, this property offers the best of both worlds—golf course living with lake lifestyle access.

2. 2026-04-07
   listed $259,000 Active 925-char remark

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   Off-frame modular home perfectly situated on the golf course in a desirable subdivision offering Lake Gaston access! Enjoy peaceful views from the beautiful screened-in porch overlooking the fairway, ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. This community is packed with amenities including a private beach, boat ramp, swimming pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, pickleball courts, volleyball area, and pavilion—everything you need for full-time living or a weekend getaway. The home also features an open floor plan with the eat-in kitchen opening into the living room area. Three spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths make this an ideal floor plan. There's a large storage building, providing plenty of space for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or a retreat near the lake, this property offers the best of both worlds—golf course living with lake lifestyle access.

3. 2012-10-05
   soldstatus $135,000 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   EXCELLENT HOME LOCATED IN TANGLEWOOD SHORES ON THE PAR-3, 6TH HOLE. COMMUNITY AMENITIES AVAILABLE INCLUDE GOLF, SWIMMING POOL, RECREATIONAL SANDY BEACH AREA, PLUS PRIVATE BOAT RAMP WITH EASY ACCESS TO LAKE GASTON. THIS 3-BEDROOM, 2-BATH HOME, WITH LARGE KITCHEN IS IN MOVE IN CONDITION. MOST HOME FURNISHINGS NEGOTIABLE. CIRCULAR DRIVE WITH 2-CAR DETACHED CARPORT.

4. 2012-10-05
   soldstatus $135,000

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   EXCELLENT HOME LOCATED IN TANGLEWOOD SHORES ON THE PAR-3, 6TH HOLE. COMMUNITY AMENITIES AVAILABLE INCLUDE GOLF, SWIMMING POOL, RECREATIONAL SANDY BEACH AREA, PLUS PRIVATE BOAT RAMP WITH EASY ACCESS TO LAKE GASTON. THIS 3-BEDROOM, 2-BATH HOME, WITH LARGE KITCHEN IS IN MOVE IN CONDITION. MOST HOME FURNISHINGS NEGOTIABLE. CIRCULAR DRIVE WITH 2-CAR DETACHED CARPORT.

5. 2012-04-03
   listed $155,000 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   EXCELLENT HOME LOCATED IN TANGLEWOOD SHORES ON THE PAR-3, 6TH HOLE. COMMUNITY AMENITIES AVAILABLE INCLUDE GOLF, SWIMMING POOL, RECREATIONAL SANDY BEACH AREA, PLUS PRIVATE BOAT RAMP WITH EASY ACCESS TO LAKE GASTON. THIS 3-BEDROOM, 2-BATH HOME, WITH LARGE KITCHEN IS IN MOVE IN CONDITION. MOST HOME FURNISHINGS NEGOTIABLE. CIRCULAR DRIVE WITH 2-CAR DETACHED CARPORT.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $616 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,091 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,475/yr (+$123/mo · 239.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$616
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,011
• After-tax cash flow: $1,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+64.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $255,000 RVLG
• 2026-04-07 Listed $259,000 RVLG
• 2012-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2012-10-05 Sold (MLS) $135,000 RVLG
• 2012-04-03 Listed $155,000 RVLG

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $616 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.