103 Ivy St · Goodlow, TX 75144

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1984 9,017 sqft lot $111/sqft · 9% below area Est $176k · 10% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 103 Ivy Street, a beautifully transformed gem in Kerens, TX! This charming home has undergone a complete renovation, making it even more impressive than when it was brand new. Every detail has been meticulously updated to offer modern comfort and style. Featuring a fresh, contemporary interior with high-quality finishes, this home boasts an open-concept layout, updated kitchen with sleek appliances, and beautifully refreshed bathrooms. The exterior shines just as bright with a new driveway, adding both curb appeal and convenience. Move-in ready and better than ever, 103 Ivy Street is the perfect blend of small-town charm and modern luxury. Don’t miss your chance to own this exceptional property—schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Complete renovation
• New driveway
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• COMPLETE RENOVATION
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,208 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Kerens ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #495 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.79%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,047
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -9.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $62,986
• Equity at exit: $96,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $170,015
• Equity at exit: $170,921

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75144

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,402/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,287

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $416	-5% $371	+0% $326	+5% $281	+10% $236
Rent	-10% $192	-5% $259	+0% $326	+5% $393	+10% $460
Rate	-1.0pp $406	-0.5pp $367	base $326	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 SW 3rd St Kerens, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,700	$0.95	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $159,000 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    Welcome to 103 Ivy Street, a beautifully transformed gem in Kerens, TX! This charming home has undergone a complete renovation, making it even more impressive than when it was brand new. Every detail has been meticulously updated to offer modern comfort and style. Featuring a fresh, contemporary interior with high-quality finishes, this home boasts an open-concept layout, updated kitchen with sleek appliances, and beautifully refreshed bathrooms. The exterior shines just as bright with a new driveway, adding both curb appeal and convenience. Move-in ready and better than ever, 103 Ivy Street is the perfect blend of small-town charm and modern luxury. Don’t miss your chance to own this exceptional property—schedule a showing today!

16. 2025-12-08
    listed $164,000 Active 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    Welcome to 103 Ivy Street, a beautifully transformed gem in Kerens, TX! This charming home has undergone a complete renovation, making it even more impressive than when it was brand new. Every detail has been meticulously updated to offer modern comfort and style. Featuring a fresh, contemporary interior with high-quality finishes, this home boasts an open-concept layout, updated kitchen with sleek appliances, and beautifully refreshed bathrooms. The exterior shines just as bright with a new driveway, adding both curb appeal and convenience. Move-in ready and better than ever, 103 Ivy Street is the perfect blend of small-town charm and modern luxury. Don’t miss your chance to own this exceptional property—schedule a showing today!

17. 2025-11-30
    historical
18. 2025-11-19
    price $169,000
19. 2025-11-07
    price $175,000
20. 2025-07-25
    listed $179,000 Active
21. 2025-07-04
    historical
22. 2025-05-24
    listed $179,000 Active
23. 2025-03-14
    soldstatus
24. 2003-09-02
    soldstatus
25. 1999-09-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,402 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,508/yr (+$126/mo · 107.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,402
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $1,407
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$338
• After-tax cash flow: $3,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerens ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825530
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,364
• Composite: 30.81/100
• National rank: #6142
• State rank: #495 of 826 in TX

Livability — Goodlow

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1208
• US rank: #21056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodlow, TX
• City population: 3,798
• Population (ZIP): 3,798

Population outlook (Navarro County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,397 people
• By 2030: 48,096 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 47,394 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 46,541 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 44,940 · -7.1%
• By 2100: 42,288 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Navarro

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.7% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+42.4 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2915
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $164,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-24 Listed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,402 · +237.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.