10426 Briar Patch St · Baytown, TX 77523

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2004 5,532 sqft lot Est $243k · 6% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

located near booming area (Walmart, restaurants, shopping) - cute 3/2/2 with ceramic tile throughout - eat-in kitchen is open to spacious living area - indoor utility plus fenced backyard

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Eat-in kitchen
• Ceramic tile

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• CERAMIC TILE
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Spectrum) with $300 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2004; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15x13); Bedroom on the first floor (11x13); Bedroom on the first floor (11x12)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,565 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.38%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,904
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1722 Maryon St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-3%)	3mo	$220,000	$163	85
9206 Burch Eagle Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+4%)	0mo	$255,990	$176	80
1703 Sterling Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,454 (+4%)	8mo	$224,500	$154	67
8311 White Willow Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,494 (+7%)	10mo	$254,000	$170	58
8227 Sugar Cane Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+5%)	17mo	$255,000	$174	58
2310 Brickfielder Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+14%)	11mo	$284,900	$179	48
2314 Gentle Breeze Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,523 (+9%)	16mo	$266,990	$175	46
8318 Sand Plum Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+13%)	17mo	$254,900	$162	40
10010 Pine Valley Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (+15%)	3mo	$255,000	$159	40
2519 Solano Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+14%)	12mo	$284,929	$180	33
2535 Windstream Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+14%)	16mo	$267,502	$169	30
7638 Fremantle Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+14%)	24mo	$308,577	$195	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-24,519
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,024
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,356 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,311/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,127

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1716 Sterling Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,250	$1.64	43d	1	0.23mi
1900 Kilgore Pkwy Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,956	$2.13	1d	17	0.31mi
2100 Kilgore Pkwy Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,964	$2.13	1d	13	0.37mi
10235 Cedar Crossing St Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$2,506	$2.28	1d	27	0.87mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-19
    listed $229,000 Active
14. 2017-05-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,311 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,311 · $359/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$4,311
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$1,500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$360
• After-tax cash flow: $2,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2017-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,311 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.