383 E Halcomb Rd · Mount Vernon, KY 40460

$49,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

2.00 ac lot Est $44k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0

Listing remarks

Ranch home with detached garage. Located close to I75

Key facts

• Close to i75
• Detached garage
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• CLOSE TO I75

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 2.9% in Mount Vernon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#321 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockcastle County (rural): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #102 of 165 in KY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rockcastle County Middle School (math 20% / reading 43%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 578 students, 63% FRL); Rockcastle County High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 819 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockcastle County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,045 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.57%
• DSCR: 2.98
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $43,616
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
383 E Halcomb Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,504 (0%)	1mo	$44,000	$29	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $24,755
• Equity at exit: $7,381

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $63,736
• Equity at exit: $4,280

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40460

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,034 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $262/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $382

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $543	-5% $529	+0% $515	+5% $501	+10% $487
Rent	-10% $433	-5% $474	+0% $515	+5% $556	+10% $596
Rate	-1.0pp $540	-0.5pp $527	base $515	+0.5pp $502	+1.0pp $489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-17
   listed $49,500 Active
3. 2003-10-01
   soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $262 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $426 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: +$164/yr (+$14/mo · 62.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$262
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$993
• − Management: −$993
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $5,700
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,368
• After-tax cash flow: $4,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockcastle County
• NCES district ID: 2105070
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $30,809
• Composite: 25.55/100
• National rank: #7430
• State rank: #102 of 165 in KY

Livability — Mount Vernon

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #15406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,269

Population outlook (Rockcastle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,003 people
• By 2030: 16,913 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 16,504 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 15,697 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 11,369 · -33.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Greek 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockcastle

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.1) · D 12.8% · R 85.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -73.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.1 2020: R+69.9 2016: R+70.2 2012: R+63.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.40%
• Current HPI: 207.2483
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $49,500 ImagineMLS
• 2003-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $262 · +278.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.