Plan 1772 Modeled Plan · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$238,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily · 278 Days on market

↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• Loft
• Front porch
• Powder bath

Tags

• POWDER BATH
• CORNER KITCHEN PANTRY
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• FRONT PORCH
• LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $238,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,555.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• New Braunfels ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #157 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1896 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $190,129 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.82%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,555
• List price: $238,995
• Delta: -11.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4251 Winston Way	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-12%)	0mo	$278,990	$179	67
4277 Carlotta Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-12%)	2mo	$278,990	$179	67
4292 Carlotta Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-12%)	1mo	$279,990	$180	66
4303 Carlotta Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-12%)	2mo	$278,990	$179	66
4315 Carlotta Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-12%)	2mo	$283,990	$183	66
3934 Legend Park	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,854 (+5%)	0mo	$329,000	$177	61
1908 Stonechat	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+7%)	0mo	$270,999	$142	54
1877 Stonechat	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-6%)	0mo	$228,999	$137	53
1861 Stonechat	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-6%)	1mo	$223,999	$134	52
1825 Stonechat	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,891 (+7%)	1mo	$247,999	$131	52
1841 Stonechat	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-6%)	2mo	$236,999	$142	51
135 Bass	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+8%)	1mo	$269,900	$141	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-72,805
• Equity at exit: $40,341

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-114,972
• Equity at exit: $23,393

Cash invested: $75,755 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1896
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,058/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,367

Max offer price $217,345

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,639
• Closing costs: $8,117
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4107 Carraway St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2348	$2,000	$0.85	1d	1	0.03mi
1320 Atticus Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1702	$2,000	$1.18	43d	1	0.21mi
4044 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,850	$1.15	4d	1	0.25mi
4262 Winston Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,700	$1.14	43d	1	0.28mi
4211 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,800	$1.14	43d	1	0.30mi
1201 Legend Pass New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,650	$1.34	43d	1	0.32mi
4238 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,795	$1.07	43d	1	0.33mi
3952 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1910	$1,795	$0.94	4d	1	0.37mi
283 Rolling Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	43d	1	0.38mi
3931 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,861	$1.10	43d	1	0.40mi
1881 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,595	$1.27	4d	1	0.62mi
104 Bass Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2237	$1,995	$0.89	1d	1	0.63mi
108 Bass Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1770	$1,999	$1.13	1d	1	0.63mi
741 Farmers Dell New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2538	$2,199	$0.87	43d	1	0.64mi
1837 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,575	$1.07	43d	1	0.65mi
2935 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,700	$1.03	4d	1	0.68mi
1490 W Klein Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	43d	1	0.71mi
2924 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,925	$1.15	23d	1	0.71mi
2915 Whinchat Unit N/A Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,850	$1.93	1d	1	0.72mi
2842 Ridge Berry Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,300	$1.45	23d	1	0.79mi
2864 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	43d	1	0.82mi
901 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	2.0–4.0	1.5–3.5	1525	$1,847	$1.21	1d	131	0.84mi
905 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,795	$1.23	43d	1	0.85mi
907 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1785	$1,775	$0.99	23d	1	0.85mi
2834 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,995	$1.05	23d	1	0.87mi
2831 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1901	$1,849	$0.97	43d	1	0.88mi
646 Ridge Lawn Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1882	$1,950	$1.04	23d	1	0.91mi
2569 McCrae New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,995	$1.06	2d	1	0.92mi
2569 McCrae New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,995	$1.06	3d	1	0.92mi
2815 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,725	$1.05	4d	1	0.93mi
1211 Foxglove St New Braunfels, TX	2.0	1.0	1329	$1,525	$1.15	23d	1	0.94mi
957 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,685	$1.15	23d	1	0.94mi
2802 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1886	$1,995	$1.06	43d	1	0.94mi
3514 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	17d	1	0.96mi
1422 Copperleaf Ct New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,795	$1.24	43d	1	0.97mi
2766 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1874	$1,795	$0.96	16d	1	1.00mi
1508 Agave Cellar New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,400	$0.97	23d	1	1.03mi
3307 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	14d	1	1.04mi
2737 Green Finch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	14d	1	1.06mi
1548 Agave Cellar New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2182	$2,300	$1.05	23d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,995 Active 278 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,995 Active 277 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,995 Active 276 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,995 Active 275 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,995 Active 273 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,995 Active 269 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,995 Active 268 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,995 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $238,995 Active 264 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,995 Active 263 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,995 Active 262 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,995 Active 261 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,995 Active 260 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    price $238,995 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

15. 2026-04-10
    price $233,995 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

16. 2026-03-27
    price $243,995 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

17. 2026-03-07
    price $253,995 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

18. 2026-02-27
    price $263,995 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

19. 2026-02-13
    price $256,995 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

20. 2026-01-24
    price $254,995 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

21. 2026-01-19
    price $264,995 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

22. 2025-11-28
    price $254,995 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

23. 2025-11-19
    price $249,995 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

24. 2025-10-14
    price $259,995 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

25. 2025-09-13
    listed $249,995 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Picnic area * Outdoor recreation nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,155
• − Property taxes: −$4,058
• − Insurance: −$1,353
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$7,871
• Taxable loss: −$9,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,225
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Braunfels ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832370
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,945
• Composite: 43.81/100
• National rank: #2931
• State rank: #157 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Braunfels, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $238,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $233,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $243,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $253,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $263,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $256,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $254,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $264,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $254,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $249,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $259,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-13 Listed $249,995 Zillow