1828 S Houston Lake Rd · Perry, GA 31047

$375,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,841 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1997 0.58 ac lot $132/sqft · 6% above area Est $416k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Appraised at $440,000 and now listed at just $375,000, thoughtfully priced to allow the next owner to update to their personal style! Enjoy your own backyard retreat with a private pool, mature trees, and room to entertain all summer long. The 24x24 shop is ideal for a workshop, storage, boat parking, recreational vehicles, or home business use. Spacious 7-bedroom, 3-bath home with over 3,300 sq ft on a private .58-acre lot in sought-after Kathleen. Flexible floorplan perfect for large families, multigenerational living, remote work, homeschooling, guest rooms, gym, or hobby space. Located in a highly desirable school zone including Matt Arthur Elementary School, Bonaire Middle School, and Veterans High School. Convenient to shopping, dining, and Robins Air Force Base. Homes with this much space, a private pool, a 24x24 shop, and land at this price are rare. Schedule your private showing today before it's gone.

Key facts

• Mature pecan trees
• Private pool
• Detached garage

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD RETREAT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• MATURE PECAN TREES
• PRIVATE POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Perry — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#149 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $109k; list at $375k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,603 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,632
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -9.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1812 Houston Lake Rd	0.18mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,937 (+3%)	13mo	$533,000	$181	68
203 Belle Mont Way	0.65mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,653 (-7%)	8mo	$284,888	$107	45
206 Fieldfare Dr	0.75mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,197 (+12%)	12mo	$509,000	$159	25
213 Old Hollow Way Lot 225	0.73mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,475 (-13%)	23mo	$415,800	$168	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-73,537
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-80,801
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31047

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,706 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,564/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,958

Max offer price $339,900

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-93	+0% $-199	+5% $-305	+10% $-411
Rent	-10% $-412	-5% $-306	+0% $-199	+5% $-92	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-103	base $-199	+0.5pp $-296	+1.0pp $-395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Hidesta Ct Kathleen, GA	5.0	3.0	2657	$2,575	$0.97	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-17
   statuslisting id $375,000 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-05-06
   status Under Contract 928-char remark

   Show marketing remark (931 chars)

   Appraised at $440,000 and now listed at just $375,000, thoughtfully priced to allow the next owner to update to their personal style. Enjoy your own backyard retreat with a private pool, mature trees, and room to entertain all summer long. The 24x24 shop is ideal for a workshop, storage, boat parking, recreational vehicles, or home business use. Spacious 7-bedroom, 3-bath home with over 3,300 sq ft on a private . 58-acre lot in sought-after Kathleen. Flexible floorplan perfect for large families, multigenerational living, remote work, homeschooling, guest rooms, gym, or hobby space. Located in a highly desirable school zone including Matt Arthur Elementary School, Bonaire Middle School, and Veterans High School. Convenient to shopping, dining, and Robins Air Force Base. Homes with this much space, a private pool, a 24x24 shop, and land at this price are rare. Schedule your private showing today before it’s gone.

3. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 931-char remark

   Show marketing remark (931 chars)

   Appraised at $440,000 and now listed at just $375,000, thoughtfully priced to allow the next owner to update to their personal style. Enjoy your own backyard retreat with a private pool, mature trees, and room to entertain all summer long. The 24x24 shop is ideal for a workshop, storage, boat parking, recreational vehicles, or home business use. Spacious 7-bedroom, 3-bath home with over 3,300 sq ft on a private . 58-acre lot in sought-after Kathleen. Flexible floorplan perfect for large families, multigenerational living, remote work, homeschooling, guest rooms, gym, or hobby space. Located in a highly desirable school zone including Matt Arthur Elementary School, Bonaire Middle School, and Veterans High School. Convenient to shopping, dining, and Robins Air Force Base. Homes with this much space, a private pool, a 24x24 shop, and land at this price are rare. Schedule your private showing today before it’s gone.

4. 2026-04-23
   price $375,000 931-char remark

   Show marketing remark (928 chars)

   Appraised at $440,000 and now listed at just $375,000, thoughtfully priced to allow the next owner to update to their personal style! Enjoy your own backyard retreat with a private pool, mature trees, and room to entertain all summer long. The 24x24 shop is ideal for a workshop, storage, boat parking, recreational vehicles, or home business use. Spacious 7-bedroom, 3-bath home with over 3,300 sq ft on a private .58-acre lot in sought-after Kathleen. Flexible floorplan perfect for large families, multigenerational living, remote work, homeschooling, guest rooms, gym, or hobby space. Located in a highly desirable school zone including Matt Arthur Elementary School, Bonaire Middle School, and Veterans High School. Convenient to shopping, dining, and Robins Air Force Base. Homes with this much space, a private pool, a 24x24 shop, and land at this price are rare. Schedule your private showing today before it's gone.

5. 2026-04-23
   price $375,000 928-char remark

   Show marketing remark (928 chars)

   Appraised at $440,000 and now listed at just $375,000, thoughtfully priced to allow the next owner to update to their personal style! Enjoy your own backyard retreat with a private pool, mature trees, and room to entertain all summer long. The 24x24 shop is ideal for a workshop, storage, boat parking, recreational vehicles, or home business use. Spacious 7-bedroom, 3-bath home with over 3,300 sq ft on a private .58-acre lot in sought-after Kathleen. Flexible floorplan perfect for large families, multigenerational living, remote work, homeschooling, guest rooms, gym, or hobby space. Located in a highly desirable school zone including Matt Arthur Elementary School, Bonaire Middle School, and Veterans High School. Convenient to shopping, dining, and Robins Air Force Base. Homes with this much space, a private pool, a 24x24 shop, and land at this price are rare. Schedule your private showing today before it's gone.

6. 2026-04-07
   listed $384,900 Active 931-char remark

   Show marketing remark (931 chars)

   Appraised at $440,000 and now listed at just $375,000, thoughtfully priced to allow the next owner to update to their personal style. Enjoy your own backyard retreat with a private pool, mature trees, and room to entertain all summer long. The 24x24 shop is ideal for a workshop, storage, boat parking, recreational vehicles, or home business use. Spacious 7-bedroom, 3-bath home with over 3,300 sq ft on a private . 58-acre lot in sought-after Kathleen. Flexible floorplan perfect for large families, multigenerational living, remote work, homeschooling, guest rooms, gym, or hobby space. Located in a highly desirable school zone including Matt Arthur Elementary School, Bonaire Middle School, and Veterans High School. Convenient to shopping, dining, and Robins Air Force Base. Homes with this much space, a private pool, a 24x24 shop, and land at this price are rare. Schedule your private showing today before it’s gone.

7. 2026-04-06
   listed $384,900 New 928-char remark

   Show marketing remark (928 chars)

   Appraised at $440,000 and now listed at just $375,000, thoughtfully priced to allow the next owner to update to their personal style! Enjoy your own backyard retreat with a private pool, mature trees, and room to entertain all summer long. The 24x24 shop is ideal for a workshop, storage, boat parking, recreational vehicles, or home business use. Spacious 7-bedroom, 3-bath home with over 3,300 sq ft on a private .58-acre lot in sought-after Kathleen. Flexible floorplan perfect for large families, multigenerational living, remote work, homeschooling, guest rooms, gym, or hobby space. Located in a highly desirable school zone including Matt Arthur Elementary School, Bonaire Middle School, and Veterans High School. Convenient to shopping, dining, and Robins Air Force Base. Homes with this much space, a private pool, a 24x24 shop, and land at this price are rare. Schedule your private showing today before it's gone.

8. 1998-03-23
   soldstatus $108,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,564 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,450 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$886/yr (+$74/mo · 34.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$2,564
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,598
• − Management: −$2,598
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$9,077
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,179
• After-tax cash flow: $-206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Perry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #9757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 22,953
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 20,203
• Household income: $117,332
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 11.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.77%
• Current HPI: 218.1333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+244.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — CGMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $375,000 CGMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $375,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $384,900 CGMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $384,900 GAMLS
• 1998-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $108,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,564 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.