4421 State Route 9G · Germantown, NY 12526

$399,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,487 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 1910 0.82 ac lot $268/sqft · 24% below area Est $523k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

You’ll appreciate the space and setting this Colonial-style home offers, situated on 0.82 acres in Germantown. A front porch leads you inside to a formal dining room and a spacious living room, with access to an office or den that can easily adapt to your needs. The main level also includes an updated half bathroom and an enclosed sunroom that extends your living space and opens out to a brand-new deck, creating a natural flow for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. The eat-in kitchen features stainless-steel appliances, granite countertops, and a peninsula with enough room to accommodate a dining area. Upstairs, the second level offers three well-proportioned bedrooms and a full ba

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Brand-new deck
• Enclosed sunroom

Tags

• 0.82 ACRES
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• UPDATED HALF BATHROOM
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• BRAND-NEW DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected (Central Hudson); Septic system
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area measured
• Construction: Frame and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Radiant heat; No central cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Granite countertops; Recessed lighting; Unfinished basement; Unfinished attic
• Laundry & utility: Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $316k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#441 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #387 of 755 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Germantown Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 276 students, 41% FRL); Germantown Junior-Senior High School (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #905 of 1,100 statewide, top 83%, 209 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $316,130 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $523,246
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -23.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1515 Cr 31	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+1%)	21mo	$429,000	$286	52
150 Main St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,600 (+8%)	6mo	$150,000	$94	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $200,796
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $604,427
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12526

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,161 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,985/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,490

Max offer price $361,382

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $399,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $399,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $399,000 Active 1746-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,985
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,035
• − Management: −$3,035
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$10,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,417
• After-tax cash flow: $-702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612030
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,242
• Composite: 47.76/100
• National rank: #4894
• State rank: #387 of 755 in NY

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #7728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Germantown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,427

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.93%
• Current HPI: 511.9627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid