625 S San Jose Dr · Abilene, TX 79605

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1962 6,621 sqft lot Est $166k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! Priced for quick sale!! Great buy on this home. With a little TLC this would make a great home. Traditional 3br-2ba home with one car garage and fenced backyard.

Key facts

• 6,621 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $775 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bonham El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 482 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+32.1%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.90%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,239
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5131 Durango Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-0%)	2mo	$165,000	$140	76
5273 Pueblo Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-3%)	3mo	$170,000	$149	70
817 S La Salle Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,070 (-9%)	3mo	$130,000	$121	69
826 S La Salle Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,309 (+11%)	1mo	$152,500	$117	67
5250 Taos Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,128 (-4%)	2mo	$145,000	$129	66
1233 S Jefferson	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,179 (0%)	2mo	$185,000	$157	65
4225 S 6th St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+12%)	1mo	$169,900	$129	64
918 Buccaneer Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+13%)	1mo	$210,000	$158	61
5208 Aztec Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+10%)	0mo	$189,000	$145	58
5417 Encino Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,125 (-5%)	2mo	$171,900	$153	53
1226 S Bowie Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,021 (-13%)	2mo	$110,000	$108	49
218 N San Jose Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,062 (-10%)	2mo	$150,000	$141	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $38,012
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $151,995
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79605

• Rents YoY: 32.1%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,292 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,586/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $775

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
841 S San Jose Dr Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	1122	$3,000	$2.67	21d	1	0.19mi
5348 Benbrook St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$2,100	$1.80	44d	1	0.78mi
234 Clyde St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	998	$1,995	$2.00	13d	1	1.05mi
728 Redbird Ln Abilene, TX	2.0	1.5	994	$1,695	$1.71	13d	1	1.11mi
5850 Hartford St Lot 123 Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,495	$1.17	13d	1	1.18mi
5441 N 10th St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,500	$1.97	13d	1	1.35mi
3250 College St Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	1148	$1,595	$1.39	21d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-01-12
   listed $145,000 Active
4. 2022-07-17
   price $995
5. 2013-09-30
   soldstatus
6. 2013-09-27
   soldstatus 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! Priced for quick sale!! Great buy on this home. With a little TLC this would make a great home. Traditional 3br-2ba home with one car garage and fenced backyard.

7. 2013-09-21
   historical 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! Priced for quick sale!! Great buy on this home. With a little TLC this would make a great home. Traditional 3br-2ba home with one car garage and fenced backyard.

8. 2013-09-16
   listed $49,000 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! Priced for quick sale!! Great buy on this home. With a little TLC this would make a great home. Traditional 3br-2ba home with one car garage and fenced backyard.

9. 2005-09-14
   soldstatus
10. 2005-04-14
    soldstatus
11. 1997-09-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,586 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$68/yr (+$6/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,586
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $7,456
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,789
• After-tax cash flow: $7,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,467
• Household income: $62,929
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1096.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.75%
• Current HPI: 201.2341
• Rent YoY: ▲ 32.08%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+195.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2022-07-17 Price Changed $995 RENT.
• 2013-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-09-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-09-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-09-16 Listed $49,000 NTREIS
• 2005-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-04-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,586 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.