3 Sally's Path · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$2,300,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,665 sqft · SingleFamily · 129 Days on market

Built 2003 1.20 ac lot Est $2161k · 6% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the Northwest Woods on a cul-du-sac setting, this classic one level home beautifully combines privacy and modern comfort. Set on 1.20+/- serene acres, the property offers a peaceful natural backdrop just 10 minutes from the villages of East Hampton and Sag Harbor. Designed for easy living, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths with an airy open layout. The chef's kitchen is outfitted with JennAir and Viking appliances, a center island, built in writing desk, and stylish finishes that make cooking and entertaining effortless. The spacious living room, enhanced by skylight and gas fireplace, creates a naturally warm and inviting gathering space. A flexible adjoining room can s

Key facts

• Spa-inspired bath
• Gas fireplace
• Cul-du-sac setting

Tags

• CUL-DU-SAC SETTING
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• GAS FIREPLACE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATH
• JACUZZI TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2.30M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.00M (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.00M (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John M Marshall Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 548 students, 51% FRL); East Hampton Middle School (math 39% / reading 60%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 265 students, 42% FRL); East Hampton High School (math 94% / reading 98%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,015 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,007/mo this rent would consume 185% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $16k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $69k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $644k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.02M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $388k; list at $2.30M implies a 494% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,000,686 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.82%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,161,315
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Sally's Path	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,665 (0%)	1mo	$2,160,000	$811	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-137,349
• Equity at exit: $342,937

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $525,719
• Equity at exit: $198,862

Cash invested: $644,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,061
• Tax from tax record: −$735 /mo · $8,815/yr
• Insurance: −$958
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,201
• Net cashflow: $2,051

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,411

Max offer price $2,300,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $575,000
• Closing costs: $69,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Villa Ave East Hampton, NY	3.0	4.0	2200	$35,000	$15.91	25d	1	1.24mi
33 Oak Hill Ln East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2350	$55,000	$23.40	25d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-06
   price $2,300,000
3. 2025-11-21
   listed $2,495,000 Active
4. 2002-07-16
   soldstatus $387,500
5. 2000-06-26
   soldstatus $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,815 · $735/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $23,843 · $1,987/mo
• Expected delta: +$15,027/yr (+$1,252/mo · 170.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$128,836
• − Property taxes: −$8,815
• − Insurance: −$11,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,207
• − Management: −$19,207
• − Depreciation: −$66,909
• Taxable loss: −$14,391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,454
• After-tax cash flow: $28,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1214.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $2,300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listed $2,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $387,500 Public Records
• 2000-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,815 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.