533 Michigan Ave · Bogalusa, LA 70427

$39,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 842 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

Built 1957 5,227 sqft lot $46/sqft · 9% above area Est $36k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home full of potential and located in desirable Flood Zone X! This cozy property features durable laminate wood and ceramic tile flooring throughout, along with updated insulated windows for improved comfort and efficiency. The roof is less than five years old, offering added peace of mind. Enjoy relaxing on the screened rear porch overlooking the backyard. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or an investor looking for a great opportunity, this home is a must-see!

Key facts

• Backyard
• Screened rear porch
• 5,227 sq ft lot

Tags

• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• UPDATED INSULATED WINDOWS
• SCREENED REAR PORCH
• BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.9% vs local median 6.0% in Bogalusa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#273 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• City Of Bogalusa School District (town): math 4% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #96 of 98 in LA (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Washington Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $39k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.14%
• DSCR: 4.43
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $35,774
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: 9.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
434 Huron Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	800 (-5%)	1mo	$10,000	$13	80
525 Ontario Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0	751 (-11%)	18mo	$135,000	$180	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $38,390
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.33×
• Total profit: $91,008
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70427

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $288/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $310

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-03-07
    listed $49,000 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home full of potential and located in desirable Flood Zone X! This cozy property features durable laminate wood and ceramic tile flooring throughout, along with updated insulated windows for improved comfort and efficiency. The roof is less than five years old, offering added peace of mind. Enjoy relaxing on the screened rear porch overlooking the backyard. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or an investor looking for a great opportunity, this home is a must-see!

17. 2026-03-07
    listed $49,000 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home full of potential and located in desirable Flood Zone X! This cozy property features durable laminate wood and ceramic tile flooring throughout, along with updated insulated windows for improved comfort and efficiency. The roof is less than five years old, offering added peace of mind. Enjoy relaxing on the screened rear porch overlooking the backyard. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or an investor looking for a great opportunity, this home is a must-see!

18. 2018-02-08
    historical
19. 2017-09-14
    listed $39,900 Active
20. 2017-09-14
    listed $39,900
21. 2006-10-31
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $288 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $288 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$288
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,150
• − Management: −$1,150
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $8,277
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,987
• After-tax cash flow: $6,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: City Of Bogalusa School District
• NCES district ID: 2200240
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -36.00%
• Median HH income: $26,185
• Composite: 6.48/100
• National rank: #9994
• State rank: #96 of 98 in LA

Livability — Bogalusa

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #19955

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bogalusa, LA
• Population (ZIP): 17,564

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,642 people
• By 2030: 43,302 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 40,345 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 37,434 · -16.1%
• By 2075: 29,954 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 21,579 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 29.3% · R 69.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -32.7pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+37.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+28.3 2008: R+32.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.26%
• Current HPI: 112.358
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+157.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Listed $49,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $49,000 GSREIN
• 2018-02-08 Listing Removed — GSREIN
• 2017-09-14 Listed $39,900 GSREIN
• 2017-09-14 Listed $39,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2006-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $288 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.