809 NW 53rd St · Lawton, OK 73505

$49,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,106 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1963

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

For more information about this home call Real Estate Experts, LLC at 580-248-2600 or visit staceandreedy.com. If you are interested in investing, flipping or just making a home your own, this is one that has lots of possibilities. It offers 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1 car garage and is approximately 2100 sq ft split level home. The home is being sold as-is and does need work, but will be great again once you are finished with the updates. Give us a call for a private tour.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1963
• Listed 112 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: One covered parking space; One total parking space; One-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Multi/split level
• Construction: Metal siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Cross-fenced yard; Some areas without fencing; Public-maintained city street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 66 x 147 x 65 x 147

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Hardwood flooring; Brick flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Storm windows; Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.4% vs local median 6.1% in Lawton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Edison Es (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #667 of 845 statewide, top 82%, 476 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Ms (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #90 of 345 statewide, top 27%, 1,035 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Hs (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #215 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 1,350 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 398 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.78%
• DSCR: 3.88
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,190
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 NW 53rd St	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,100 (-0%)	1mo	$44,000	$21	99
3905 NE Realtree Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,300 (+9%)	3mo	$416,900	$181	71
5101 NW Elm Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,861 (-12%)	9mo	$196,000	$105	65
5106 NW Elm Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-14%)	0mo	$209,000	$116	65
803 NW 48th St	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (+4%)	1mo	$195,000	$89	64
808 NW 50th St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-14%)	4mo	$208,000	$116	57
4719 NW Cheryl Blvd	0.40mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,300 (+9%)	2mo	$265,000	$115	55
835 NW 58th St	0.34mi	4/1.5	1,800 (-14%)	5mo	$155,000	$86	54
707 NW Heinzwood Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-5%)	3mo	$175,000	$88	53
7 NW 60th St	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,000 (-5%)	6mo	$170,000	$85	53
4608 NW Meadowbrook	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,400 (+14%)	4mo	$325,000	$135	44
5610 NW Briarwood Ave	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (-14%)	9mo	$226,000	$126	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $43,057
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.06×
• Total profit: $112,653
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73505

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 398
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $831/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $445

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $783	-5% $768	+0% $754	+5% $740	+10% $726
Rent	-10% $644	-5% $699	+0% $754	+5% $810	+10% $865
Rate	-1.0pp $779	-0.5pp $767	base $754	+0.5pp $741	+1.0pp $728

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-05-05
   price $49,900
4. 2026-05-04
   status Active
5. 2026-03-23
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-03-20
   status Active
7. 2026-03-16
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2026-03-12
   price $55,000
9. 2026-01-23
   listed $59,900 Active
10. 2013-10-30
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $831 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $831 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$831
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $8,784
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,108
• After-tax cash flow: $6,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 47,790
• Household income: $58,272
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1986.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 16% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.88%
• Current HPI: 169.4524
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.14%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+10.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — LBRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — LBRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $49,900 LBRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — LBRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Contingent — LBRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — LBRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Contingent — LBRMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $55,000 LBRMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $59,900 LBRMLS
• 2013-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $831 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.