2406 40th St · Pinehurst, TX 77630

$136,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,299 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1956 1.08 ac lot $105/sqft · 18% below area Est $167k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect starter home with a great yard. 3/1/1 home features living area with original hardwood floors, kitchen dining combo. Extras include a large detached shop with a separate driveway entrance. Make your appointment today.

Key facts

• Modern interior
• Updated home
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• 1 ACRE LOT
• QUIET AREA
• EASY ACCESS TO IH-10
• MODERN INTERIOR
• MOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Located in the Out Of Town subdivision
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with standard residential construction
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Range; Vinyl flooring; Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-343/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Orange-Stark El (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 1,130 students, 94% FRL); West Orange-Stark Middle (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 505 students, 92% FRL); West Orange-Stark H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 660 students, 88% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($944 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,445 (3.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,182
• List price: $136,500
• Delta: -18.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,632
• Equity at exit: $46,669

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $44,012
• Equity at exit: $62,074

Cash invested: $38,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,332 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$716
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,903/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,368

Max offer price $131,445

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $10	+0% $-29	+5% $-67	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-81	+0% $-29	+5% $24	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $40	-0.5pp $6	base $-29	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,125
• Closing costs: $4,095
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3345 W Park Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	999	$1,182	$1.18	15d	7	0.88mi
3714 Ridgemont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,450	$1.42	15d	1	1.00mi
3615 Ridgemont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1266	$1,275	$1.01	45d	1	1.09mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 404 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,254	$1.25	45d	1	1.18mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 401 Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,725	$1.01	22d	1	1.18mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Apt 105 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,255	$1.32	22d	1	1.18mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 315TWNHME Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1216	$1,040	$0.86	22d	1	1.18mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 107 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,255	$1.32	45d	1	1.18mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 408 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,059	$1.06	45d	1	1.18mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 203 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,084	$1.08	15d	1	1.23mi
7b Concord St Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1206	$1,450	$1.20	15d	1	1.23mi
2801 W Sunset Dr Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	15d	27	1.36mi
310 Camellia Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	22d	1	1.46mi
403 Bluebonnet Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,300	$1.09	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $136,500 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $136,500 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,561 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,561 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,561 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,561 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $142,561 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,561 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $142,561 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $142,561 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $142,561 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $142,561 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $142,561 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $142,561 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,561 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $142,561 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $142,561 Active 30 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    status Active 983-char remark
19. 2026-04-28
    status Pending 983-char remark
20. 2026-04-22
    listed $142,561 Active 983-char remark
21. 2023-10-21
    historical $1,450
22. 2023-09-22
    listed $1,450
23. 2022-03-23
    soldstatus
24. 2021-04-20
    soldstatus
25. 2015-09-04
    soldstatus
26. 2015-09-03
    soldstatus 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Perfect starter home with a great yard. 3/1/1 home features living area with original hardwood floors, kitchen dining combo. Extras include a large detached shop with a separate driveway entrance. Make your appointment today.

27. 2015-07-07
    listed $69,900 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Perfect starter home with a great yard. 3/1/1 home features living area with original hardwood floors, kitchen dining combo. Extras include a large detached shop with a separate driveway entrance. Make your appointment today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,903 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,903 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,646
• − Property taxes: −$2,903
• − Insurance: −$1,480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,279
• − Management: −$1,279
• − Depreciation: −$3,971
• Taxable loss: −$2,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$617
• After-tax cash flow: $274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+95.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $136,500 BBOR
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — BBOR
• 2026-04-28 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-22 Listed $142,561 BBOR
• 2023-10-21 Rental Removed $1,450 BBOR
• 2023-09-22 Listed for Rent $1,450 BBOR
• 2022-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-09-03 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2015-07-07 Listed $69,900 BBOR

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,903 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.