34 Hampton Ct · Scotchtown, NY 10941

$324,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,508 sqft · Townhouse public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1965 1,155 sqft lot Est $312k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath end-unit townhouse, where convenience meets comfort. The expansive living room serves as the heart of the home, featuring large glass sliders that transition seamlessly to a sprawling backyard—perfect for weekend BBQs or a peaceful afternoon in the sun. Upstairs, the primary suite is a true retreat, boasting private doors that lead to your own personal balcony overlooking the large back yard. This is perfectly situated for the modern lifestyle; you are just minutes away from all major highways and the area's best shopping and dining. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a home that offers so much.

Key facts

• Personal balcony
• Sprawling backyard
• 1,155 sq ft lot

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LIVING ROOM
• SPRAWLING BACKYARD
• PERSONAL BALCONY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($268/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Scotchtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#515 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Circleville Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 477 students, 54% FRL); Crispell Middle School (math 17% / reading 46%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 633 students, 52% FRL); Pine Bush Senior High School (math 92% / reading 67%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,615 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 29% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $324k implies a 1925% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $270,707 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.29%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,156
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36 Hampton Ct	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,508 (0%)	11mo	$329,900	$219	91
52 Hampton Ct	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-4%)	19mo	$279,000	$194	75
4 Cindy Ln	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-4%)	22mo	$217,500	$151	70
160 Patio Rd	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,620 (+7%)	20mo	$335,000	$207	68
32 Patio Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+6%)	14mo	$300,000	$188	66
708 Silver Lake Scotchtown Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+6%)	20mo	$330,000	$206	63
70 Sandburg Ct	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,560 (+3%)	12mo	$322,500	$207	51
26 Chaucer Ct	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,428 (-5%)	14mo	$300,000	$210	51
84 Sandburg Ct	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-11%)	11mo	$340,000	$253	46
18 Shelley Ct	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,428 (-5%)	21mo	$295,000	$207	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-50,707
• Equity at exit: $48,309

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-40,783
• Equity at exit: $28,014

Cash invested: $90,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10941

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,707 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,386/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,679

Max offer price $324,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $206	-5% $114	+0% $22	+5% $-69	+10% $-161
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-85	+0% $22	+5% $129	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $105	base $22	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,000
• Closing costs: $9,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Tower Ridge Cir Scotchtown, NY	2.0	2.0	1123	$2,600	$2.32	15d	1	0.46mi
411 Tower Ridge Cir Scotchtown, NY	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,700	$2.20	15d	1	0.46mi
10 Chaucer Ct Middletown, NY	3.0	1.5	1428	$2,400	$1.68	44d	1	0.57mi
114 Tower Ridge Cir Scotchtown, NY	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,700	$2.20	44d	1	0.58mi
834 Tower Ridge Cir Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	1249	$2,400	$1.92	44d	1	0.59mi
310 Tower Dr Scotchtown, NY	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,700	$2.20	44d	1	0.61mi
100 Tower Ridge Cir Unit 122 Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	1330	$3,000	$2.26	44d	1	0.62mi
200 Tower Dr Scotchtown, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1142	$2,900	$2.54	15d	5	0.62mi
202 Midland Lake Rd Middletown, NY	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,800	$1.58	24d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-24
   price $324,000
3. 2026-02-05
   listed $349,000 Active
4. 1970-09-01
   soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,431 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,045/yr (+$87/mo · 30.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,149
• − Property taxes: −$3,386
• − Insurance: −$1,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − Depreciation: −$9,425
• Taxable loss: −$5,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $1,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Scotchtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #9142

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scotchtown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,422
• Household income: $99,238
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 525.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 21% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.38%
• Current HPI: 326.3597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.15%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1925.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $324,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listed $349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1970-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,386 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.