10 Whittier Dr · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$335,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1967 10,019 sqft lot $423/sqft · 17% below area Est $403k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Perfect starter home! Dock your boat or go fishing down the block!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1967
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 rooms total (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $335k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,631 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.29%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $402,673
• List price: $335,000
• Delta: -16.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
154 Jefferson Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0	836 (+6%)	4mo	$380,000	$455	70
129 Locust Dr	0.50mi	2/1.0	800 (+1%)	8mo	$371,000	$464	68
19 Lacrosse Rd	0.44mi	2/1.0	740 (-7%)	3mo	$275,000	$372	66
15 Juniper Rd	0.29mi	2/1.0	714 (-10%)	7mo	$337,000	$472	64
186 Orchid Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0	761 (-4%)	9mo	$411,850	$541	53
255 Mckinley Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	798 (+1%)	11mo	$387,500	$486	52
129 Woodland Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0	733 (-7%)	22mo	$350,000	$477	52
119 Hemlock Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0	824 (+4%)	13mo	$458,000	$556	48
132 Cypress Dr	0.31mi	2/1.0	900 (+14%)	23mo	$315,000	$350	44
168 Woodland Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0	896 (+13%)	14mo	$400,000	$446	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $154,879
• Equity at exit: $301,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $478,672
• Equity at exit: $650,831

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$412 /mo · $4,949/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,505

Max offer price $257,631

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Cedar Rd E Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	740	$2,900	$3.92	1d	1	0.35mi
12 Hackensack Rd Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	792	$3,150	$3.98	17d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-10
   listed $335,000 Active 68-char remark
2. 2010-03-01
   soldstatus $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,949 · $412/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,305 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$356/yr (+$30/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$4,949
• − Insurance: −$7,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,833
• − Management: −$2,833
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$10,914
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,619
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+116.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Listed $335,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,949 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.