3823 Aerial Brook Trl · Fresno, TX 77545

$305,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2003 7,113 sqft lot Est $300k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this warm and inviting 2-story home nestled in the sought-after Teal Run community of Missouri City. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, this charming home offers a spacious and comfortable layout designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtful updates completed in 2023 include beautiful vinyl plank flooring, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, a stylish kitchen backsplash, plus a microwave and dishwasher. A new water heater was also installed in 2026 for added peace of mind. Filled with natural light and welcoming living spaces, this home is conveniently located near parks, shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. Come see all the comfort an

Key facts

• New water heater
• Natural light
• Granite countertops

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• KITCHEN BACKSPLASH
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WELCOMING LIVING SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (TriQuest Management); Association amenities include clubhouse, playground, park, pool, and trails; Annual association fee: $480

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2003
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (16 x 15); Bedrooms on second floor (12 x 11; 13 x 11; 12 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High ceilings; Pantry; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Gas-log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lula Belle Goodman El (math 11% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,974 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 721 students, 87% FRL); Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-28 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $278,815 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3931 Oak Plank Rd	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,680 (0%)	2mo	$279,900	$104	87
1815 Teal Run Place Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,692 (+0%)	1mo	$199,950	$74	82
3947 Oak Plank Rd	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,600 (-3%)	3mo	$289,990	$112	80
2422 Teal Run Place Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,627 (-2%)	4mo	$290,000	$110	74
1806 Coretta Ct	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,680 (0%)	5mo	$264,999	$99	71
1822 Lansing Cove Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,696 (+1%)	1mo	$299,786	$111	71
2443 Inlet Ct	0.51mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,750 (+3%)	3mo	$424,990	$155	62
2730 Driftwood Bend Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,725 (+2%)	6mo	$365,000	$134	61
4023 Ashview Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,359 (-12%)	4mo	$290,600	$123	59
1803 Shadow Haven Ct	0.47mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,046 (+14%)	1mo	$230,000	$76	48
3111 Cambridge Falls Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,352 (-12%)	3mo	$315,000	$134	43
2727 Driftwood Bend Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,314 (-14%)	0mo	$325,000	$140	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-51,545
• Equity at exit: $59,508

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-73,409
• Equity at exit: $51,114

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,788 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$551 /mo · $6,611/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,933

Max offer price $284,721

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $58	-5% $-28	+0% $-115	+5% $-201	+10% $-287
Rent	-10% $-335	-5% $-225	+0% $-115	+5% $-5	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-37	base $-115	+0.5pp $-194	+1.0pp $-274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3526 Cambridge Falls Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	3.0	3136	$2,624	$0.84	22d	1	0.38mi
2123 Witham Park Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	4.0	3026	$2,850	$0.94	45d	1	0.42mi
3932 Teal Run Place Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	1914	$2,150	$1.12	45d	1	0.43mi
3806 Teal Maple Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	3.5	2318	$2,146	$0.93	4d	1	0.63mi
2703 Facet Creek Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	2099	$2,226	$1.06	0d	1	0.88mi
2644 Blue Abbot Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	2435	$2,450	$1.01	45d	1	1.05mi
4931 Natchez Trce Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,350	$1.28	45d	1	1.36mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	45d	1	1.39mi
3211 Breckinridge Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2920	$2,550	$0.87	22d	1	1.43mi
2642 Sunlit Meadow Trl Fresno, TX	5.0	3.5	2785	$4,000	$1.44	45d	1	1.48mi
1402 Windom Court Way Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	1831	$2,300	$1.26	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $305,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $305,000 Pending 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $305,000 Pending 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $305,000 Pending 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $305,000 Pending 5 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $305,000 Pending 4 DOM
7. 2026-05-27
   listed $305,000 Active
8. 2005-12-27
   soldstatus
9. 2005-10-12
   historical
10. 2005-07-01
    listed $199,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,611 · $551/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,611 · $551/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$6,611
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,677
• − Management: −$2,677
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$6,469
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+52.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2005-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-10-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-07-01 Listed $199,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,611 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.