196 N Bella Monte Ave · Bay Point, CA 94565

$295,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1931 4,725 sqft lot Est $444k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention Investors & Visionary Buyers: The Ultimate Sweat-Equity Opportunity Awaits: Unlock massive potential in one of Bay Point’s most rapidly developing pockets! Sitting on a generous sized lot, this diamond-in-the-rough is the blank canvas you have been searching for. Whether you are looking to execute a high-yield flip, build a profitable rental property, or design your own custom home from the studs up, this property is brimming with possibilities in a rising market. Commuter’s Dream: Located just minutes from Highway 4 and the Pittsburg/Bay Point BART Station, providing seamless transit access across the entire East Bay and into San Francisco. Steps to Recreation:

Key facts

• Open green spaces
• Home expansion
• Generous sized lot

Tags

• GENEROUS SIZED LOT
• SEAMLESS TRANSIT ACCESS
• OPEN GREEN SPACES
• POTENTIAL ADU
• HOME EXPANSION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1931; Corner lot
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Side yard; Storage; Entry gate

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range/cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Dining area; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.7% in Bay Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#736 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mt. Diablo Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #202 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $295k implies a 1867% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,875 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.98%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $443,584
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44 Montecello St	0.47mi	3/1.0	927 (-0%)	9mo	$520,000	$561	70
252 Madison Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	894 (-4%)	0mo	$455,000	$509	69
284 Cleveland Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	911 (-2%)	9mo	$420,000	$461	61
215 Madison Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (-5%)	11mo	$245,000	$277	61
118 Poinsettia Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-12%)	8mo	$410,000	$502	61
88 S Bella Monte Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	879 (-5%)	16mo	$420,000	$478	60
96 Sapone Ln	0.28mi	3/1.0	832 (-10%)	14mo	$410,000	$493	58
35 W Rose Ave	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,044 (+12%)	10mo	$475,000	$455	58
383 Cleveland Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	874 (-6%)	6mo	$395,000	$452	52
205 Cleveland Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,014 (+9%)	14mo	$470,000	$464	52
91 Mountain View Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	828 (-11%)	10mo	$480,000	$580	42
2054 Mendocino Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,059 (+14%)	5mo	$460,000	$434	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-39,506
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-36,457
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94565

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,489 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,091/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,229

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Roberts St Unit b Bay Point, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,795	$2.24	2d	1	0.41mi
2901 Mary Ann Ln Bay Point, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$2,038	$2.74	5d	8	0.51mi
1023 Chadwick Cir Bay Point, CA	2.0	2.0	940	$2,350	$2.50	4d	1	0.68mi
515 Lancaster Ln #138 Bay Point, CA	2.0	2.0	884	$2,600	$2.94	24d	1	0.74mi
138 Tammy Cir Bay Point, CA	2.0	1.0	842	$2,300	$2.73	3d	1	0.82mi
2201 Oak Hills Cir Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$2,660	$3.26	2d	3	1.07mi
1123 Shoreview Ct Bay Point, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$2,704	$3.28	3d	9	1.09mi
60 Pacifica Ave Bay Point, CA	2.0	1.5	864	$1,775	$2.05	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 683-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $295,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,091 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,242 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,151/yr (+$96/mo · 105.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,091
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,389
• − Management: −$2,389
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$2,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$621
• After-tax cash flow: $3,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt. Diablo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626370
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,494
• Composite: 37.5/100
• National rank: #4401
• State rank: #202 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bay Point

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #21661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay Point, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 100,488
• Household income: $95,556
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3942.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 19% Asian 17% White 16% Black 13% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -478.40%
• Current HPI: 376.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1866.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $295,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1972-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,091 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.