500 Running Woods St · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32065

$199,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,107 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 231 Days on market

Built 2023 1,306 sqft lot $130/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Towering Oaks! Open concept two-story townhomes feature all the latest smart home technology and energy-efficient features. Fantastic shopping and dining is right around the corner at the Oakleaf Town Center. The First Coast Expressway makes for a quick and convenient commute to all major interstates in Jacksonville. For more information and to get started on your new home journey, please call or visit our Model Home. * Photos are of the Model Home

Key facts

• Easy access
• Community amenities
• Tennis courts

Tags

• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY
• ENERGY EFFICIENT FEATURES
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• TENNIS COURTS
• PLAYGROUND
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities include basketball court, clubhouse, playground, and tennis courts; Monthly association fee of $130; CDD fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Attached property; Used as multifamily or single-family residential
• Construction: Fiber cement and frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Community pool and community spa; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-247/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Plantation Oaks Elementary School (math 60% / reading 61%, grade B-, #664 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 938 students, 48% FRL); Oakleaf Junior High (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,118 students, 46% FRL); Oakleaf High School (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 2,371 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,051
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,337
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32065

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,035/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,911

Max offer price $195,369

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $36	+0% $-21	+5% $-77	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-95	+0% $-21	+5% $54	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $30	base $-21	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3978 Oak Mill Rd Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,595	$1.44	24d	1	0.07mi
448 Running Woods St Unit 1 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1333	$1,850	$1.39	24d	1	0.07mi
3972 Village View Ln Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,695	$1.53	24d	1	0.07mi
3996 Village View Ln Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,524	$1.66	4d	1	0.08mi
607 Crystal Way Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,725	$1.20	4d	1	0.09mi
513 Spanish Oaks Way Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,600	$1.44	17d	1	0.09mi
785 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1430	$1,800	$1.26	24d	1	0.33mi
785 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1430	$1,800	$1.26	2d	2	0.33mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$2,300	$2.26	4d	7	0.53mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$2,300	$2.26	2d	7	0.53mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	969	$2,300	$2.37	24d	6	0.53mi
4123 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$2,045	$1.53	2d	1	1.22mi
250 Cherry Ridge Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$1,753	$1.61	3d	14	1.36mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$2,258	$2.16	2d	10	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 213 DOM
14. 2025-11-22
    price $199,000
15. 2025-11-07
    price $209,000
16. 2025-10-30
    listed $215,000 Active
17. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus $211,990 Sold 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Welcome to Towering Oaks! Open concept two-story townhomes feature all the latest smart home technology and energy-efficient features. Fantastic shopping and dining is right around the corner at the Oakleaf Town Center. The First Coast Expressway makes for a quick and convenient commute to all major interstates in Jacksonville. For more information and to get started on your new home journey, please call or visit our Model Home. * Photos are of the Model Home

18. 2022-12-21
    status Pending 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Welcome to Towering Oaks! Open concept two-story townhomes feature all the latest smart home technology and energy-efficient features. Fantastic shopping and dining is right around the corner at the Oakleaf Town Center. The First Coast Expressway makes for a quick and convenient commute to all major interstates in Jacksonville. For more information and to get started on your new home journey, please call or visit our Model Home. * Photos are of the Model Home

19. 2022-12-08
    price $216,990 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Welcome to Towering Oaks! Open concept two-story townhomes feature all the latest smart home technology and energy-efficient features. Fantastic shopping and dining is right around the corner at the Oakleaf Town Center. The First Coast Expressway makes for a quick and convenient commute to all major interstates in Jacksonville. For more information and to get started on your new home journey, please call or visit our Model Home. * Photos are of the Model Home

20. 2022-11-30
    price $218,990 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Welcome to Towering Oaks! Open concept two-story townhomes feature all the latest smart home technology and energy-efficient features. Fantastic shopping and dining is right around the corner at the Oakleaf Town Center. The First Coast Expressway makes for a quick and convenient commute to all major interstates in Jacksonville. For more information and to get started on your new home journey, please call or visit our Model Home. * Photos are of the Model Home

21. 2022-11-16
    price $221,990 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Welcome to Towering Oaks! Open concept two-story townhomes feature all the latest smart home technology and energy-efficient features. Fantastic shopping and dining is right around the corner at the Oakleaf Town Center. The First Coast Expressway makes for a quick and convenient commute to all major interstates in Jacksonville. For more information and to get started on your new home journey, please call or visit our Model Home. * Photos are of the Model Home

22. 2022-10-20
    price $219,990 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Welcome to Towering Oaks! Open concept two-story townhomes feature all the latest smart home technology and energy-efficient features. Fantastic shopping and dining is right around the corner at the Oakleaf Town Center. The First Coast Expressway makes for a quick and convenient commute to all major interstates in Jacksonville. For more information and to get started on your new home journey, please call or visit our Model Home. * Photos are of the Model Home

23. 2022-10-20
    status Active 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Welcome to Towering Oaks! Open concept two-story townhomes feature all the latest smart home technology and energy-efficient features. Fantastic shopping and dining is right around the corner at the Oakleaf Town Center. The First Coast Expressway makes for a quick and convenient commute to all major interstates in Jacksonville. For more information and to get started on your new home journey, please call or visit our Model Home. * Photos are of the Model Home

24. 2022-07-14
    historical 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Welcome to Towering Oaks! Open concept two-story townhomes feature all the latest smart home technology and energy-efficient features. Fantastic shopping and dining is right around the corner at the Oakleaf Town Center. The First Coast Expressway makes for a quick and convenient commute to all major interstates in Jacksonville. For more information and to get started on your new home journey, please call or visit our Model Home. * Photos are of the Model Home

25. 2022-07-08
    price $240,990 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Welcome to Towering Oaks! Open concept two-story townhomes feature all the latest smart home technology and energy-efficient features. Fantastic shopping and dining is right around the corner at the Oakleaf Town Center. The First Coast Expressway makes for a quick and convenient commute to all major interstates in Jacksonville. For more information and to get started on your new home journey, please call or visit our Model Home. * Photos are of the Model Home

26. 2022-06-22
    price $245,990 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Welcome to Towering Oaks! Open concept two-story townhomes feature all the latest smart home technology and energy-efficient features. Fantastic shopping and dining is right around the corner at the Oakleaf Town Center. The First Coast Expressway makes for a quick and convenient commute to all major interstates in Jacksonville. For more information and to get started on your new home journey, please call or visit our Model Home. * Photos are of the Model Home

27. 2022-06-17
    listed $250,990 Active 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Welcome to Towering Oaks! Open concept two-story townhomes feature all the latest smart home technology and energy-efficient features. Fantastic shopping and dining is right around the corner at the Oakleaf Town Center. The First Coast Expressway makes for a quick and convenient commute to all major interstates in Jacksonville. For more information and to get started on your new home journey, please call or visit our Model Home. * Photos are of the Model Home

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,035 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,035 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,035
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,529
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$847
• After-tax cash flow: $600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakleaf Plantation, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 40,366
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,578
• Household income: $97,455
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.13%
• Current HPI: 276.5987
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $199,000 realMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $209,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $215,000 realMLS
• 2023-01-31 Sold (MLS) $211,990 realMLS
• 2022-12-21 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-12-08 Price Changed $216,990 realMLS
• 2022-11-30 Price Changed $218,990 realMLS
• 2022-11-16 Price Changed $221,990 realMLS
• 2022-10-20 Price Changed $219,990 realMLS
• 2022-10-20 Relisted — realMLS
• 2022-07-14 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2022-07-08 Price Changed $240,990 realMLS
• 2022-06-22 Price Changed $245,990 realMLS
• 2022-06-17 Listed $250,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+45.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,035 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.