2470 E Hearne Ave · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$94,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Land public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1987 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully fenced 2 bedroom singlewide with great bones and potential! This home offers 784 sq ft of living space, ceiling fans, open floor plan, breakfast bar, casual dining, indoor laundry, sizable bedrooms, full bath, uncovered patio, mature shade trees, utility shed, carport. Centrally located close to all amenities!

Key facts

• Mature pine trees
• Large storage shed
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED PROPERTY
• DOUBLE CAR COVERED CARPORT
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• GREEN SYNTHETIC GRASS
• MATURE PINE TREES
• DECORATIVE METAL SCREEN DOOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property
• Construction: Rolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Front and back yard fencing (chain link and wood); Shed(s); Has a view; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Breakfast bar/open kitchen entry
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Wall/window cooling units; Multiple cooling units
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Open floorplan; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.3% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 643 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $95k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.74%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $9,136
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $30,850
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86409

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 643
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,256 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $213/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $703

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $491	-5% $464	+0% $437	+5% $410	+10% $383
Rent	-10% $338	-5% $388	+0% $437	+5% $487	+10% $536
Rate	-1.0pp $485	-0.5pp $461	base $437	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2840 E Leroy Ave Kingman, AZ	1.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	44d	1	0.38mi
2915 E Thompson Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	792	$1,150	$1.45	44d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   status Active
3. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-07
   listed $94,900 Active
5. 2019-10-24
   soldstatus $27,000 317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (317 chars)

   Fully fenced 2 bedroom singlewide with great bones and potential! This home offers 784 sq ft of living space, ceiling fans, open floor plan, breakfast bar, casual dining, indoor laundry, sizable bedrooms, full bath, uncovered patio, mature shade trees, utility shed, carport. Centrally located close to all amenities!

6. 2019-09-10
   listed $35,000 317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (317 chars)

   Fully fenced 2 bedroom singlewide with great bones and potential! This home offers 784 sq ft of living space, ceiling fans, open floor plan, breakfast bar, casual dining, indoor laundry, sizable bedrooms, full bath, uncovered patio, mature shade trees, utility shed, carport. Centrally located close to all amenities!

7. 2002-05-03
   soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $213 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $626 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$413/yr (+$34/mo · 193.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$213
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,206
• − Management: −$1,206
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $3,895
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$935
• After-tax cash flow: $4,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 181,906 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,365
• Household income: $50,852
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 688.0

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
• Current HPI: 280.1884
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+413.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — WARDEX
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — WARDEX
• 2026-04-02 Pending — WARDEX
• 2026-03-07 Listed $94,900 WARDEX
• 2019-10-24 Sold (MLS) $27,000 WARDEX
• 2019-09-10 Listed $35,000 WARDEX
• 2002-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $213 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.