14026 Satin Groove Dr · Alafaya, FL 32828

$74,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 284 Days on market

Built 2000 ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this great family home, features, OPEN FLOOR PLAN, WALK-IN CLOSETS, GALLY KITCHEN, INSIDE WASHER DRYER, LAMINATE FLOORS, ADDITIONAL ROOM perfect for NURSERY OR OFFICE, & MORE. .. .COMMUNITY FEATURES, BEAUTIFUL, RELAXING POOL, CABANAS, & PLAYGROUND. ..

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Additional room
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• INSIDE WASHER DRYER
• ADDITIONAL ROOM
• RELAXING POOL
• CABANAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned RES
• HOA & community: Has HOA; Community allows pets; Land lease: $925

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); One story; North-facing
• Construction: Metal siding; Shingle roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Lighting; Rain gutters; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Crawlspace foundation (utility access)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room / dining room combo; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.1% vs local median 3.5% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 320 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $243 of equity ($518 loan paydown + $-275 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.49%
• DSCR: 4.63
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.37% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $81,993
• Equity at exit: $20,384

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.39×
• Total profit: $176,023
• Equity at exit: $23,439

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32828

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,458 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $1,424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,476	-5% $1,450	+0% $1,424	+5% $1,398	+10% $1,372
Rent	-10% $1,230	-5% $1,327	+0% $1,424	+5% $1,521	+10% $1,618
Rate	-1.0pp $1,462	-0.5pp $1,443	base $1,424	+0.5pp $1,405	+1.0pp $1,385

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
525 Loyola Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1400	$2,973	$2.12	2d	43	0.40mi
1911 Colonial Woods Blvd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,100	$1.42	24d	1	0.76mi
1705 Circe Lake Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,100	$1.73	24d	1	1.07mi
13645 E Colonial Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$2,235	$2.61	3d	10	1.10mi
12949 Odyssey Lake Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,100	$1.61	8d	1	1.14mi
12912 Odyssey Lake Way Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1392	$2,399	$1.72	5d	1	1.22mi
13087 Odyssey Lake Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1148	$2,350	$2.05	24d	1	1.25mi
1301 Waterford Oak Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$2,069	$2.18	2d	14	1.40mi
12000 Bryonia Rd Alafaya, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$2,570	$2.62	2d	14	1.40mi
1820 Bonneville Dr Unit 1820 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	850	$1,595	$1.88	24d	1	1.42mi
12932 Mallory Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1173	$2,737	$2.33	17d	49	1.45mi
12932 Mallory Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1096	$2,564	$2.34	2d	39	1.45mi
1700 Woodbury Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$2,009	$2.01	3d	7	1.46mi
12973 Lexington Summit St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,195	$1.49	22d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 284 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 283 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $74,900 Active 270 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 269 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 268 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 267 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 266 DOM
15. 2025-12-20
    price $74,900
16. 2025-11-04
    price $79,900
17. 2025-10-04
    price $84,900
18. 2025-09-07
    listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,360
• − Management: −$2,360
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $16,904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,057
• After-tax cash flow: $13,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alafaya

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #1076

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B+ Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alafaya, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 131,972
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 69,202
• Household income: $101,767
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2213.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 23% Black 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Current HPI: 284.5182
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-16.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $74,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-07 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid