22515 Liberty St · St. Clair Shores, MI 48080 1945

$199,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1968 6,969 sqft lot Est $209k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right into this St. Clair Shores brick ranch with nice size yard. All freshly painted neutral colors, white six panel doors, refinished hardwood floors throughout, Updated Kitchen, Updated Bath, All kitchen appliances and washer and dryer stay. Open painted basement, large shed. Walking distance to Downtown St. Clair Shores and just a few blocks from the Nautical Mile. Nothing to do but move in your belongings, Be moved into your new home for the Holidays!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1968

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 2.5 parking spaces in garage
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas; Forced air heating
• Home design: Residential 2-story home; Built in 1968; Below-grade finished area in basement (approx. 600); Additional below-grade area (approx. 1076)
• Construction: Brick and wood construction; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Brick and wood exterior; Paved street frontage; Frontage approximately 50 feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on entry level (approx. 12 x 11)
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on second level (10 x 12); Two bedrooms on entry level (10 x 10; approx. 10 wide)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on entry level (approx. 7 x 6); One lavatory in basement (approx. 6 x 6); Two total baths/lavatories
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Basement present; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-343/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in St. Clair Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Lake Schools (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #470 of 540 in MI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $200k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $167,670 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,744
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22639 Stephens St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+2%)	3mo	$184,000	$167	78
22118 Elizabeth St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,071 (-0%)	1mo	$124,900	$117	72
22328 Trombly St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,089 (+1%)	0mo	$255,000	$234	72
22417 Maxine St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+2%)	2mo	$173,900	$158	68
22679 Oconnor St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-7%)	1mo	$197,000	$197	68
21910 Englehardt St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,071 (-0%)	1mo	$242,000	$226	66
21734 Colony St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,007 (-6%)	1mo	$199,305	$198	62
21712 Lakeview St	0.54mi	3/1.0	986 (-8%)	0mo	$116,000	$118	60
22628 O'connor St	0.32mi	3/1.0	922 (-14%)	2mo	$185,000	$201	60
21520 Harper Lake Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,117 (+4%)	2mo	$130,000	$116	57
22401 Gaukler St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (-8%)	0mo	$170,000	$172	50
21910 Elizabeth St	0.63mi	2/1.5 (-1)	984 (-9%)	1mo	$191,000	$194	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $22,280
• Equity at exit: $89,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $81,907
• Equity at exit: $138,590

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48080 1945

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,652/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,713

Max offer price $194,950

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22617 Oconnor St Saint Clair Shores, MI	3.0	1.0	923	$2,000	$2.17	1d	1	0.30mi
22411 Oconnor St Saint Clair Shores, MI	2.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	43d	1	0.30mi
24000 Jefferson Ave Unit 218 St Clair Shores, MI	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	43d	1	0.42mi
218 Riviera Dr St Clair Shores, MI	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	43d	1	0.46mi
401 Northshore Dr St Clair Shores, MI	2.0	1.0–1.5	970	$1,554	$1.60	1d	4	0.48mi
22307 Greater Mack Ave St Clair Shores, MI	2.0	1.0	806	$1,195	$1.48	2d	1	0.65mi
23124 Grove St Saint Clair Shores, MI	3.0	1.0	1129	$2,000	$1.77	1d	1	0.73mi
24901 Jefferson Ave Unit 210 St Clair Shores, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	5d	1	0.76mi
22126 Alger St Saint Clair Shores, MI	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,750	$1.65	10d	1	0.81mi
22464 Beach St Saint Clair Shores, MI	2.0	1.5	1316	$2,300	$1.75	1d	1	0.87mi
20625 Elizabeth St Saint Clair Shores, MI	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,895	$1.76	43d	1	0.89mi
26324 Harper Unit 4 St Clair Shores, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$1,195	$1.71	24d	1	1.48mi
26324 Harper Ave Unit 6 St Clair Shores, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $199,999 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   remarks 586-char remark
3. 2026-06-13
   listed $199,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,652 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,866 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$214/yr (+$18/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,652
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,772
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$905
• After-tax cash flow: $562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Lake Schools
• NCES district ID: 2632220
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $51,594
• Composite: 16.76/100
• National rank: #9159
• State rank: #470 of 540 in MI

Livability — St. Clair Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Clair Shores, MI

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-13 Listed $199,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-11 Sold (MLS) $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-01-11 Sold (MLS) $90,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-01-06 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2015-12-04 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-11-24 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-11-19 Price Changed $97,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-11-19 Price Changed $97,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-11-09 Price Changed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-11-08 Price Changed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-11-02 Listed $104,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-11-02 Listed $104,900 REALCOMP
• 2013-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,652 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.