53 Pamela Ave #53 · Belton, MO 64012

$48,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 75 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * PRE-OWNED HOME: Step into this beautifully updated 2014 Skyline 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home that offers comfort, space, and modern style at an incredible value. Fresh updates throughout create a clean, contemporary feel that makes this home truly move-in ready. The spacious layout features an inviting living area, a functional kitchen with ample cabinet space, a pantry for added storage, and a dedicated laundry room for everyday convenience. The private primary suite includes a walk-in closet and its own full bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This home also comes equipped with essential appliances, including a dishwasher

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 74 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1056; Address: 53 Pamela Ave #53, Belton, MO 64012; Status: Active; Inventory type: Spec
• Financial info: List price: $48,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Single-family property (Spec plan: Southfork)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.6% vs local median 4.7% in Belton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#52 in MO, #3,782 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Belton 124 (suburban): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #216 of 324 in MO (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 588 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $45,120 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.92%
• DSCR: 5.49
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $68,371
• Equity at exit: $7,157

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.65×
• Total profit: $170,062
• Equity at exit: $4,150

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64012

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$60 /mo · $720/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $1,130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $420

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,164	-5% $1,147	+0% $1,130	+5% $1,114	+10% $1,097
Rent	-10% $984	-5% $1,057	+0% $1,130	+5% $1,203	+10% $1,277
Rate	-1.0pp $1,155	-0.5pp $1,143	base $1,130	+0.5pp $1,118	+1.0pp $1,105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 W 162nd Ter Belton, MO	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,565	$1.18	3d	1	0.61mi
834 Autumn Woods Dr VLG LOCH LOYD, MO	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,730	$1.31	2d	4	0.63mi
15319 Grand Summit Ext Grandview, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,150	$1.41	44d	1	1.04mi
301 Towne Center Dr Belton, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,799	$1.68	2d	9	1.15mi
16311 Hight Ave Belton, MO	4.0	3.0	1308	$2,285	$1.75	4d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $48,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $48,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $48,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $48,000 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$720
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,777
• − Management: −$1,777
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $13,610
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,266
• After-tax cash flow: $10,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton 124
• NCES district ID: 2904620
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,946
• Composite: 29.73/100
• National rank: #6446
• State rank: #216 of 324 in MO

Livability — Belton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #3782

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belton, MO
• County: Cass County · 65,358 people
• City population: 29,304
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 29,304
• Household income: $71,814
• Rent vs Own: 34.9% rent · 65.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,292 people
• By 2030: 106,109 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 105,786 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 102,062 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 88,569 · -15.9%
• By 2100: 68,293 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.1) · D 33.3% · R 65.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -32.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.1 2020: R+31.6 2016: R+35.9 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -244.76%
• Current HPI: 214.6157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.17%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B